Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of My Food Bag Group Limited (NZSE:MFB)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, My Food Bag Group fair value estimate is NZ$0.12

• My Food Bag Group's NZ$0.13 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of My Food Bag Group Limited (NZSE:MFB) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for My Food Bag Group

The Method

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (NZ$, Millions)	NZ$2.92m	NZ$2.15m	NZ$1.77m	NZ$1.56m	NZ$1.45m	NZ$1.39m	NZ$1.35m	NZ$1.34m	NZ$1.35m	NZ$1.36m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -38.99%	Est @ -26.49%	Est @ -17.74%	Est @ -11.62%	Est @ -7.33%	Est @ -4.33%	Est @ -2.23%	Est @ -0.76%	Est @ 0.27%	Est @ 0.99%
Present Value (NZ$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.0%	NZ$2.7	NZ$1.9	NZ$1.4	NZ$1.2	NZ$1.0	NZ$0.9	NZ$0.8	NZ$0.8	NZ$0.7	NZ$0.7

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = NZ$12m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = NZ$1.4m× (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (7.0%– 2.7%) = NZ$32m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= NZ$32m÷ ( 1 + 7.0%)¹⁰= NZ$16m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is NZ$29m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of NZ$0.1, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at My Food Bag Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.944. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for My Food Bag Group

Strength

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

• Earnings declined over the past year.

• Current share price is above our estimate of fair value.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 4 years.

Threat

• No apparent threats visible for MFB.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For My Food Bag Group, we've put together three fundamental aspects you should look at:

1. Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with My Food Bag Group .

2. Future Earnings: How does MFB's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.