The Fastest Declining City in the World

We recently analyzed the fastest-declining metro areas in the world and in this article we will discuss the city that experienced the fastest drop in population between 2020 and 2024. Check out our free report on 16 Fastest Declining Metro Areas in the World.

Global Population at a Glance

The global population was reported to have reached 8 billion in 2022. During the same period, Eastern and South-Eastern Asia accounted for 29% of the global population while Central and Southern Asia hosted 26%. Regions including Australia and New Zealand, Northern Africa, Western Asia, and Oceania were expected to record slower but positive population growths. On the contrary, populations were projected to reach their peak and then start declining before 2100 in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, Central and Southern Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe and Northern America. Till 2050, more than half of the rise in the world’s population has been forecasted to occur in countries including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United Republic of Tanzania.

Population Demographics: Developed vs Developing World

In 2022, China and India served as the most populous countries in the Asian region. As of 2023, India is set to replace China as the most populous country as reported by the UN. India’s population was forecasted to reach 1,425,775,850 people in April 2023. While India's population will be growing over the next few years, the population in China declined during 2022 and is expected to drop even further. Population trends in the respective countries are largely driven by their fertility levels. In 2022, China had one of the lowest fertility rates globally, at 1.2 births per woman while India’s fertility rate was 2.0 births per woman. The one-child policy and other policies for promoting later marriages and long gaps between births led to the fertility rate collapse in China. India also implemented policies to curb population growth but due to the differing state government priorities, the outcomes were different. Furthermore, lower human capital investment and reduced economic growth in India led to a more gradual fertility decline than in China which drove a fast and persistent population growth.

Simultaneously, the current demographic shifts in least-developed countries are important to be understood. Most of these countries are situated in sub-Saharan Africa and are subject to high fertility rates and young age structures. In 2023, the proportion of those aged 65 or above was 3.7% in these countries while the same proportion was 9% in developing countries and 20% in the developed world. Between 2023 and 2050, all the least developed countries are expected to see their populations age with an increase in the proportion and the number of older people. 28 least developed nations in Africa are experiencing an annual population growth of more than 2% currently while 7 of them will continue to see the same rapid growth in their population which will ultimately cause problems for them.

Population Patterns in Urban Settlements

In 2018, 55.3% of the world’s population resided in urban settlements. This percentage had increased from 30% in 1950. Based on geography, the most urbanized regions included Northern America with 82% urban population in 2018, Latin America and the Caribbean with 81% of the population in urban areas, and Europe and Oceania with 74% and 68% urban populations respectively. Simultaneously, Asia had 50% urbanization while Africa was primarily rural. Asia and Africa together hosted 90% of the global rural population in 2018. Countries with the largest urban population in the world have been previously discussed.

As predicted by the United Nations, two out of every three people will be living in cities or urban centers by 2050. This equates to the addition of 2.5 billion people to urban areas. 90% of this growth is set to occur in Asia and Africa which had relatively lower urban populations back then. Countries such as India, China, and Nigeria will account for 35% of the global urban population growth between 2018 and 2050. Another forecast mentions that there will be 43 megacities with more than 10 million inhabitants in the world by 2030. Most of these megacities will be in developing regions of the world. Back in 2018, almost half of the global population resided in small settlements of less than 500,000 inhabitants while only 1 in 8 people lived in these megacities.

The UN also states that the cities that have witnessed population declines in the past are mostly a part of low-fertility countries of Asia and Europe. Similarly, cities in Japan and Korea such as Nagasaki and Busan have also lost their populations between 2000 and 2018. Population has also been declining in Poland, Romania, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine since 2000. Emigration, natural disasters, and economic contractions have been cited as the reasons behind declining cities. Despite these population losses in global cities, fewer cities have been forecasted to see decreasing populations till 2030. You can also take a look at some of the fastest-declining cities and fastest-declining states in the US.

A country specifically subject to the risk of disappearing cities is Japan. The country’s overall population fell by 800,000 during 2022. On May 24, The Japan Times reported that half of Japan’s cities will witness population declines over the next century. In 2020, 83 Japanese cities had at least 100,000 inhabitants and 21 cities had at least 500,000 inhabitants. By 2120, only 49 cities will be hosting at least 100,000 inhabitants and only 11 will be having at least 500,000 inhabitants, in the case of a medium-fertility scenario. The demographic crisis in Japan has been reported to be serious with a decreasing fertility rate and an increasing older population as major issues. The national fertility rate has been below 2.1 for 50 years. Since the younger population is lower than older adults, women of childbearing age are really less and cannot contribute to a reverse trend in population. The country also has a lower marriage rate due to the high cost of living and stagnant wages which brings the fertility rate low.

Now that we have discussed how the population has been changing in different parts of the world as well as the factors driving or shrinking these population changes, let's rank the fastest declining metro area in the world.

The Fastest Declining Metro Area in the World

The Fastest Declining Metro Area in the World

Our Methodology:

In order to compile a list of the fastest declining metros areas in the world, we sourced data from the World Urbanization Prospects reported by the United Nations. We have calculated the percentage change in population from 2020 to 2024 for all cities as our metric for ranking. To take into account the fastest declines in populations across metro areas, we included all those cities that experienced a population change of 2% or higher between 2020 and 2024. The city populations in 2020 and 2024 as estimated by the United Nations have also been mentioned. Thus, the cities have been ranked in ascending order of their percentage declines in population.

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The Fastest Declining Metro Area in the World

Nagasaki, Japan

Percentage Change in Population (2020-2024): -3.43%

Population (2020): 414,000

Population (2024): 400,000

Nagasaki ranks as the fastest-declining city in the world. The city is positioned on the island of Kyushu in Japan. Nagasaki serves as the capital of the Nagasaki Prefecture. The city has an important historical significance as it was subject to an atomic bomb during World War II. While the city was an industrial center, developments were formed on surrounding hills to cater to its housing demand. These developments constituted small homes and were inaccessible and hence, they eventually lost their appeal. In the early 1990s, the city faced an industrial decline which enhanced a population shrinkage. Nagasaki's population dropped from 506,000 people in 1975 to 429,000 in 2015. According to the United Nations, the city experienced another population decline of 3.43% between 2020 and 2024.

To learn more about other cities where the population has declined by more than 2% between 2020 and 2024, check out our free report on 16 Fastest Declining Metro Areas in the World.

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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published on Insider Monkey.