Lucy Harley-McKeown
FTSE 100 LIVE: European markets buoyant and US stocks mixed as early rate cut hopes fade
Updated
The FTSE and European markets were up on Tuesday and US stocks were mixed after falling on Monday as markets digest comments made that signal a US rate cut is further away than previously predicted.
The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) popped almost 0.9% higher by the closing bell in London.
Gains in the index were led by oil giant BP (BP.L), which posted full-year 2023 results and plans to boost shareholder returns. Shareholder rewards came despite a drop in profits for the commodities major. BP was up 5.7% by the close in London.
The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) rose 0.6%, while Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) headed 0.7% higher and the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris rose 0.6%.
Europe was in a better mood than the US, which had closed down on Monday, following a warning from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell about cutting interest rates too soon.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was almost flat by the close in Europe, while the Dow (^DJI) was up 0.2% and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) fell 0.1%.
Chipmakers such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron Technology (MU) were among companies dragging the tech-heavy Nasdaq into the red.
Follow along for live updates:
LIVE COVERAGE IS OVER15 updates
Signing off
That's all from me for today, head over to the Yahoo Finance US site for more market-moving stories.
- Lucy Harley-McKeown
Oil price snaps losing streak
IG's Axel Rudolph has the oil analysis today:
"The oil price, which declined amid demand concerns and ample supply over the past four consecutive trading days, recovered by around half a percentage point as tensions remain high in the Middle East. The RBA's decision to keep its rates on hold whilst talking about the possibility for further rate hikes in order to tame inflation led to a minor Australian dollar appreciation and a pause in the greenback's strong appreciation over the past couple of days. This helped the gold price regain recently lost ground."
- Lucy Harley-McKeown
China's ETF buyers
Another interesting chart here from ETF analysts at Bloomberg, focusing on a shift in focus from Chinese investors:
Craziness: Chinese investors are stampeding out of local mkt (chart) and into US-focused ETFs, creating record volumes (chart). Problem is there's a quota so they buying in at premiums of up to 43% which has govt issuing warnings but no one cares bc the US FOMO is that bad via… pic.twitter.com/CZTTO5oKXZ
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 6, 2024
- Lucy Harley-McKeown
Are the 'mag 7' all they're cracked up to be?
It's early days for 2024 still, but we have an interesting chart from Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial looking at the hero stocks of the US indexes and their contributions to the S&P 500’s total return from this year to last year:
His takeaways:
This year’s Mag 7 performance looks much different than last year. For example, the equal weight Mag 7 index was outperforming the S&P 500 by 23% at this time last year, compared to this year’s roughly 5% year-to-date delta over the broader market.
Within the group, leadership has also become more concentrated. Shares of Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and NVIDIA (NVDA) have done most of the heavy lifting. These four stocks have contributed to nearly 75% of the S&P 500’s total return this year, more than double the contributions from the top four stocks during this time last year.
As the chart illustrates, contributions among the group were all positive last year at this time and more evenly dispersed.
- Lucy Harley-McKeown
What to watch in the US
Here's what to watch in US trade today from our US team:
In the early going, Spotify (SPOT) shares jumped in premarket trading after the music streamer's strong guidance, while Eli Lilly's (LLY) stock popped after the company's 2024 profit forecast topped estimates. Ford (F) is expected to report after the market close.
At the same time, investors will listen for whether this week's Fed speakers break ranks with chair Jerome Powell on the path of policy. Fed officials Loretta Mester and Patrick Harker are scheduled to speak on Tuesday.
- Lucy Harley-McKeown
Former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng prepares to stand down
Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor who served under Liz Truss's short premiership, has said he will stand down as an MP at the next election.
"Yesterday I informed my association chair of my decision not to stand at the next general election.
"It has been an honour to serve the residents of Spelthorne since 2010, and I shall continue to do so for the remainder of my time in parliament," the MP for Spelthorne in Surrey, said on Tuesday.
Kwarteng, who holds a majority of 18,393 in his constituency, leaves a chequered legacy as he prepares to step back. He was the chancellor who shepherded the disastrous mini-budget which crashed the pound and sent UK markets into disarray. Truss resigned as the prime minister shortly after.
Sky News reported today that he is the 55th Conservative MP to say he will not stand at the next election.
- Lucy Harley-McKeown
Interest rate cut possible this year says Bank of England official
More on rate cut speculation from Pedro.
Read it here: Interest rate cut possible this year says Bank of England official
- Lucy Harley-McKeown
Latest Eurozone retail sales figures
Hot off the press:
Eurozone Retail Sales (M/M) Dec: -1.1% (est -1.0%; prevR 0.3%)
- Retail Sales (Y/Y) Dec: -0.8% (est -0.8%; prevR -0.4%)— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) February 6, 2024
- Lucy Harley-McKeown
PMI: Business optimism at 2-year high
Here are the top lines from the S&P construction PMI:
Business activity expectations strongest since January 2022
New orders fall again, albeit only marginally
House building remains the weakest-performing segment
Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the survey said:
"UK construction companies seem increasingly optimistic that the worst could be behind them soon as recession risks fade and interest rate cuts appear close on the horizon. The prospect of looser financial conditions and an improving economic backdrop meant that business activity expectations strengthened to the highest for two years in January. Moreover, there were again signs that customer demand is close to turning a corner as total new orders fell to the smallest extent for six months."
- Lucy Harley-McKeown
BP expands share buybacks despite falling profits
Yahoo Finance UK reporter Pedro Goncalves has the full story on BP:
BP (BP.L) has reported a sharp drop in profits after oil prices fell last year but is pushing ahead with further shareholder returns.
BP made underlying profits of $3bn (£2.4bn) in the final three months of the year, exceeding analyst estimates of $2.8bn, and taking earnings for 2023 to $13.8bn (£11bn). However, this is down by half from the record of $27.7bn set in 2022.
Despite the plunge, the energy firm will continue to pump money back to shareholders. It has announced a new $1.75bn share buyback — larger than the $1.5bn it executed in the last quarter — and is committed to $3.5bn worth of buybacks for the first half of this year. Overall, the plan is to buy back at least $14bn over 2024-25.
BP’s new chief executive Murray Auchincloss said: “Looking back, 2023 was a year of strong operational performance with real momentum in delivery right across the business.
“And as we look ahead, our destination remains unchanged... focused on growing the value of BP.”
Read more here: BP expands share buybacks despite falling profits
- Lucy Harley-McKeown
FTSE risers and fallers
Here are the FTSE 100's (^FTSE) top fallers, as of 9.20am:
And the top risers:
- Lucy Harley-McKeown
UK rate cut not 'if' but 'when'
The Bank of England's Huw Pill injected some optimism into markets on Monday night as he said on a webcast that rates may drop as a "reward" for falling inflation.
He backed this up by saying that borrowing costs are on track to fall, and therefore CPI wouldn't have to come down all the way to 2% for Threadneedle Street to start cutting.
Rates currently have a long way to come down, having sat at 5.25% for months. Pill added that it is "premature" to start thinking about cutting rates in the immediate future.
- Lucy Harley-McKeown
Tuesday trade in Asia
It was a different story for stocks across China on Tuesday morning, with multiple indexes across the region surging following news of fresh government support for the economy.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng (^HSI) closed almost 4% higher, while the SSE Composite (000001.SS) was 3.2% higher. Indexes were led by healthcare and tech stocks.
They were also buoyed by a note by the Chinese securities and regulatory authority, which said it will "guide institutional investors... to enter the market with greater efforts."
- Lucy Harley-McKeown
Overnight in the US
Markets fell overnight in the US, slipping from record highs, and bond yields surged as jitters prevail about the pace of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Key data included the ISM Services report which showed:
The composite rose to 53.4 in January from 50.5 in December. (Values above 50 imply growth.)
New orders, a leading indicator of future activity, picked up in January despite geopolitical pressures.
The prices paid index rose above 60 for the first time in 11 months.
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial's quick take on that is: "Markets could get squeamish as purchasing managers reported a big uptick in prices paid, mostly reflecting the increase in shipping costs. However, this uptick should be temporary. Investors should expect prices to revert if conditions in the Red Sea improve. The World Container Index has already declined in February after reaching a high near the end of January."
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed 0.3% lower, the Dow (^DJI) fell 0.7% and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) was down 0.2% by the close on Monday.
- Lucy Harley-McKeown
Good morning!
Good morning from London. Lucy Harley-McKeown here, ready for another day of watching what's moving markets across the world. In terms of data, this morning we can expect:
UK construction PMIs (9.30am GMT)
European retail sales (10am GMT)
Without further ado, let's get to it.
Watch: Ford earnings, Fedspeak: What to Watch
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