The Hurdles Sturgeon Faces Before 'Indyref 2'

When Nicola Sturgeon gathers her cabinet around the table this weekend, you could forgive her a fantasy: for closing her eyes and dreaming of an independence referendum now.

Right now, this weekend. An indignant Referendum Nation chasing entitlements snatched away.

A core independence vote joined by a makeweight majority catapulted into its ranks by EU "injustice".

Previously pro-Union Scots revising their place in the UK versus the wider world.

Scots who saw a break in the political mould and felt sanguine about smashing it some more. Scottish independence.

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Only, Ms Sturgeon's eyes would eventually open to gaze upon a referendum masterplan, her masterplan, in which the events of the past 48 hours are an awkward fit.

Given the choice, she would have ALL the choices on an independence referendum - most importantly, when to hold it. Timing is critical for an "Indyref 2" that she would have to win.

However timing, suddenly, just got tighter.

There's a view commonly held by independence supporters that the preferred referendum date would be 2020, after the next Westminster election.

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The thinking goes that a Tory victory and prospect of Conservative rule for another term would be so unpalatable to a sufficient majority of Scots that a breakaway would be inevitable.

Crucially, four years would provide a breathing space to build support and turn round polls that reflect stubborn support for the Union. The breakaway blueprint features a summer initiative this year to start convincing "indy-sceptics".

It's the start of a long game, only the game just got shorter.

Now there is increased time pressure on Ms Sturgeon to prosecute the case for separation and overcome its obstacles, old and new.

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She still needs permission from Westminster to hold a referendum (not guaranteed), public confidence in the currency economic opportunity of an independent Scotland (uncertain) and an assurance that an independent Scotland would gain consent to join the EU (difficult, given Spain's concerns regarding Catalonia).

There is much still in the way of her independence dream, not least the prospect of a UK that prospers upon its EU exit and endears Scots currently disaffected.

Then, there are the opinion polls.

Prior to the EU referendum, polls didn't show any great appetite for a referendum, even if there was Brexit.

"Indyref 2" will be all about timing and circumstances.

Engineering a convergence of the two will be the measure of Ms Sturgeon, her ambition and ability.