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Can You Imagine How RSA Insurance Group's (LON:RSA) Shareholders Feel About The 18% Share Price Increase?

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One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. For example, the RSA Insurance Group plc (LON:RSA) share price is up 18% in the last three years, clearly besting than the market return of around 15% (not including dividends).

See our latest analysis for RSA Insurance Group

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

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RSA Insurance Group was able to grow its EPS at 66% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is higher than the 5.7% average annual increase in the share price. So one could reasonably conclude that the market has cooled on the stock.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

LSE:RSA Past and Future Earnings, May 13th 2019
LSE:RSA Past and Future Earnings, May 13th 2019

We know that RSA Insurance Group has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? This free interactive report on RSA Insurance Group's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, RSA Insurance Group's TSR for the last 3 years was 30%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that RSA Insurance Group shareholders are down 12% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 1.8%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 5.1%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Keeping this in mind, a solid next step might be to take a look at RSA Insurance Group's dividend track record. This free interactive graph is a great place to start.

We will like RSA Insurance Group better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.