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While Ava Risk Group Limited (ASX:AVA) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 20% in the last quarter. On the bright side the returns have been quite good over the last half decade. Its return of 95% has certainly bested the market return! Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 46% decline over the last twelve months.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the last half decade, Ava Risk Group became profitable. That's generally thought to be a genuine positive, so we would expect to see an increasing share price.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It is of course excellent to see how Ava Risk Group has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at Ava Risk Group's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between Ava Risk Group's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. We note that Ava Risk Group's TSR, at 108% is higher than its share price return of 95%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Ava Risk Group had a tough year, with a total loss of 45%, against a market gain of about 16%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 16% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Ava Risk Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Ava Risk Group has 3 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.