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Investors Who Bought BP (LON:BP.) Shares A Year Ago Are Now Down 39%

This week we saw the BP p.l.c. (LON:BP.) share price climb by 10%. But in truth the last year hasn't been good for the share price. In fact the stock is down 39% in the last year, well below the market return.

See our latest analysis for BP

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Unhappily, BP had to report a 58% decline in EPS over the last year. This fall in the EPS is significantly worse than the 39% the share price fall. So despite the weak per-share profits, some investors are probably relieved the situation wasn't more difficult.

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The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

LSE:BP. Past and Future Earnings April 1st 2020
LSE:BP. Past and Future Earnings April 1st 2020

It is of course excellent to see how BP has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. If you are thinking of buying or selling BP stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for BP the TSR over the last year was -35%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that BP shareholders are down 35% for the year (even including dividends) . Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 18%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 0.9%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand BP better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 5 warning signs for BP you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.