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Janus International Group, Inc. (NYSE:JBI) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. Statutory revenue and earnings both blasted past expectations, with revenue of US$230m beating expectations by 23% and earnings per share (EPS) reaching US$0.13, some 81% ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Janus International Group after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Janus International Group's five analysts is for revenues of US$909.5m in 2022, which would reflect a solid 10.0% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 80% to US$0.60. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$859.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.54 in 2022. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Janus International Group's future following the latest results, with a substantial gain in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.
Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$13.80, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Janus International Group at US$17.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$11.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Janus International Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 14% annualised growth rate until the end of 2022 being well below the historical 46% growth over the last year. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Janus International Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Janus International Group following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Janus International Group going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Janus International Group you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.