ConocoPhillips (COP) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Over the past month, shares of this energy company have returned +3.5%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.4% change. During this period, the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry, which ConocoPhillips falls in, has lost 2.4%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Revisions to Earnings Estimates
Rather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
ConocoPhillips is expected to post earnings of $2.37 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -39.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.3%.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $10.04 points to a change of -25.7% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +0.2%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $11.42 indicates a change of +13.7% from what ConocoPhillips is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for ConocoPhillips.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth Forecast
Even though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
For ConocoPhillips, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $15.88 billion indicates a year-over-year change of -27.8%. For the current and next fiscal years, $64.74 billion and $66.88 billion estimates indicate -21.2% and +3.3% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
ConocoPhillips reported revenues of $15.52 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -19.6%. EPS of $2.38 for the same period compares with $3.27 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.31 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +1.34%. The EPS surprise was +17.82%.
Over the last four quarters, ConocoPhillips surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
Without considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an An is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
ConocoPhillips is graded B on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about ConocoPhillips. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
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