Here’s What We Learned From Fed’s Decision to Dial Back Interest-Rate Forecasts

(Bloomberg) -- Here are key takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision and economic forecasts on Wednesday:

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• The dot plot of Federal Open Market Committee rate projections shows the median official expects one quarter-point cut in 2024, two fewer than the previous round of quarterly forecasts in March; however, the median forecast for 2025 rises to 4.1% from 3.9%, implying four cuts compared with three projected in March

• FOMC votes unanimously to leave benchmark rate unchanged in target range of 5.25%-5.5%, a two-decade high, for a seventh straight meeting; statement repeats prior language saying the FOMC doesn’t expect to cut rates “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%”

• Officials tweak statement language to acknowledge “modest further progress” toward inflation goal in recent months

• Median forecast for PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, rises to 2.6% for 2024 while core PCE projection rises 0.2 percentage point to 2.8%; economic-growth estimate for 2024 unchanged at 2.1%

• Officials also lifted forecasts for where they see rates settling over the long term, boosting their median estimate to 2.8% from 2.6% in March

Follow the reaction in real time on Bloomberg’s TOPLive blog

--With assistance from Jonnelle Marte.

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