LIVE MARKETS-Auto investors have already put their helmets on
* European shares steady
* Banks among top sectoral gainers
* Asian stocks near 9-month highs
April 15 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to
you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Danilo Masoni. Reach him on Messenger to
share your thoughts on market moves: rm://danilo.masoni.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
AUTO INVESTORS HAVE ALREADY PUT THEIR HELMETS ON (1030 GMT)
Export-oriented autos are likely to be much in focus here in Europe as the earnings season
gets underway but UBS argues there are high chances that (very bad) Q1 numbers may just be
shaken off as the focus has already turned to a recovery in Q2.
"With global car sales down -4% y/y and production down even -6% in Q1, investors have
already put their helmets on, just waiting to shake off the debris of a likely very bad Q1
results season," analysts at Swiss investment bank say.
"Sentiment has clearly been on the rise as of late, and we agree that a gradual recovery
starting Q2 (driven by a positive swing in China demand and de-stocking coming to an end) is the
most likely scenario," they add.
That being said the team led by Patrick Hummel doesn't believe it's time to uncork
champagne: "We don't get enthusiastic on the sector as Western markets are likely to decline
this year".
Turning back to Q1 they see Volkswagen posting the best OEM result with a drop
in operating profit of just 6 percent year-on-year. Daimler stands at the other end
of the spectrum with an expected EBIT drop of 32 percent excluding one-offs.
Despite the poor expectations for the first quarter, Europe's auto index has rallied
strongly year to date as the sector has joined a global catch-up rally following a turbulent end
to 2018.
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
WHEN QUALITY IS TOO PRICEY (0922 GMT)
"With a U.S. recession widely expected at some point over the next 12-18 months and very
little earnings growth forecast in Europe, many wish to be positioned in 'Quality'. However the
valuations seem prohibitive."
That's how Bernstein summarises what it calls the quality dilemma. It then tries to offer
investors looking for shelter during a possible economic slowdown a cheaper way out.
"While there is strong evidence that ROE performs well in a Slowdown and Recession, with
these all-time high valuations we prefer to cast a wider net and look for Quality elsewhere. Our
preferred measures are a blend of Earnings Quality in Europe, and Low Leverage within sectors
globally," strategists at the U.S. firm say.
Unlike operating quality measures such as ROE which are trading at all-time valuation highs,
they highlight that Earnings Quality in Europe remains cheap both on PE and PB metrics.
Want some picks? The screens they include in their note feature names across various
sectors.
Their "Europe: Blended Earnings Quality - high" list, for example, includes stocks such as
phone group Deutsche Telekom, brewer Heineken, oil major Eni,
transport conglomerate AP Moeller Maersk, builder Vinci, miner Glencore
, telco equipment supplier Ericsson, and utility Enel.
Below a chart showing how valuations of ROE in Europe have become pretty expensive.
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
GREEN SHOOTS IN EARNINGS SENTIMENT (0834 GMT)
Spring has well and truly sprung, even for microeconomic indicators which are, according to
Goldman Sachs, pointing to an uptick in the global economy after a weak first quarter.
EPS sentiment bottomed in early January, oscillated for two months, and has recently
improved again, GS analysts say (see below).
"This should be encouraging to macro investors who are still on the fence about the
prospects of global growth improving heading into Q2," they argue.
What's more, earnings sentiment in sectors seen as economic bellwethers has been giving a
positive signal since January.
Which are the best bellwethers? GS says delivery companies, home improvement stores, banking
institutions, and technology exporters most often tend to lead the macro data.
Overall, "EPS sentiment has improved the most in consumer and real estate companies, has
just turned the corner for Information Technology, but is still lagging in Industrials," they
write.
This sector divergence may reflect the fact an easing in financial conditions and lower
interest rates helps consumer companies, but the capex cycle is still relatively weak.
(Helen Reid)
*****
CHINA, CHINA, CHINA (0756 GMT)
Looks like global markets have turned their attention towards China, yet again. Be it growth
or the U.S.-China trade deal, research houses at global banks are optimistic.
They see strong activity levels recently and believe that's going to drive another round of
all-time highs in global markets.
"We still expect global equities, led by China and the S&P 500, to make a significant new
all-time high before one should start to position for the next recession," JP Morgan equity
strategists say in a note.
Goldman Sachs sees mining companies well positioned as China property staged a V-shaped
recovery post Chinese New Year.
"China concerns are overdone."
The economy is responding to stimulus measures put in place, according to a GS note from
last week.
"...we could well be starting to see the beginnings of an economic pickup in China, after
several months of poor data," Michael Hewson at CMC Markets says.
Investors are next looking to China's March-quarter gross domestic product data due
Wednesday.
(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
*****
BANK BOOST, DEFENSIVES SLIDE, STOXX FLAT (0732 GMT)
European shares have opened broadly stable today with banks showing further strength and
hitting their highest in more than 6 months as last week's earnings beat from JP Morgan and
easing worries over the economy bring some relief to the battered sector.
No surprise then that the bank-heavy Italian index is outperforming its peers,
climbing to its highest in more than eight months, while the broader STOXX 600 is just
about flat as defensives like consumer and healthcare stocks are taking a hit with Nestle
falling further from the fresh record high hit last week.
Its fall is dragging on the Swiss SMI index, last down 0.15 percent, while gains in
sterling have put a cap on the exporter-heavy UK FTSE 100 index.
Here's your opening snapshot:
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW AT THE OPEN (0657 GMT)
European shares are expected to start the week on a positive note with the STOXX 600 seen
climbing back towards its mid-August highs after fresh trade optimism and encouraging Chinese
data lifted shares in Asia overnight. Futures on main country benchmarks are up 0.1-0.2 percent.
In corporate news, results have started to trickle in with Vivendi posting higher
first-quarter revenue and saying it was making progress on the planned sale of up to 50 percent
of its UM music arm. Its shares are up 2 percent in premarket trade.
In M&A, eyes on Publicis after saying it will pay $4.4 billion to acquire Alliance Data's
Epsilon marketing unit. Elsewhere, Daimler is seen falling at the open on reports that Germany's
motor vehicle authority is investigating the carmaker on suspicion that 60,000 Mercedes cars
were fitted with software aimed at tricking emissions tests.
Other stock movers: Acacia Mining backs full-year production forecast; Monocle CEO says no
one has asked to buy company - FT; ING Group Chairman Andy Green to step down; Barclays activist
Bram son in fresh letter to investors over board seat; Remus operator WIG to sell Japan
operations for 320 million pounds
For more headlines check out the previous post.
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
FUTURES ON THE UP, EARNINGS START TO TRICKLE IN (0615 GMT)
The good mood seen in Asia on the strong Chinese data and signs of the Sino-US trade talks
entering a final stage has spread to Europe this morning with futures on main country benchmarks
opening up around 0.2 percent. On the corporate front, earning updates have started to trickle
in (Vivendi and Mowi) and dealmaking talk continues.
Media conglomerate Vivendi posted higher Q1 revenue and said it was making progress
on the planned sale of up to 50 percent of its UMG music arm, while Publicis said it
will pay $4.4 billion to acquire Alliance Data's Epsilon marketing unit. Meanwhile Mediaset
and ProSiebenSat.1 denied merger talks.
Here is you full headlines roundup:
Publicis pays $4.4 bln for Epsilon to extend digital reach
Vivendi Q1 sales jump; makes progress on UMG stake sale
Top fish farmer Mowi's Q1 earnings lag forecast
Rio Tinto commits extra $302 mln for Resolution copper project
Italy's Mediaset, ProSiebenSat.1 deny merger talks
Regulators press Deutsche Bank to shrink U.S. investment unit- FT
Swiss insurer Baloise to buy Belgium's Fidea for 480 mln euros
Volkswagen expects core brand's global 2019 sales to be in line with last year
German motor authority probes more Mercedes emissions software -Bild
Britain's Brewin Dolphin in talks to buy Investec's Irish wealth business
Santander seeks full ownership of Mexican business with $2.9 bln deal
Portugal's market regulator gives ultimatum to China Three Gorges in bid for EDP
Britains's Non-Standard Finance flags errors on past dividends
Ethos Foundation asks shareholders to vote down UBS executive pay proposal
Norsk Hydro's earnings delayed by 5 weeks due to March cyber attack
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
EUROPEAN STOCKS SEEN HIGHER (0529 GMT)
European shares are expected to edge up at the open today following gains in Asian markets
overnight on signs of the Sino-U.S. trade talks entering a final stage.
Financial spreadbetters expect London's FTSE to open 9 point higher at 7,446, Frankfurt's
DAX to open 23 points higher at 12,023 and Paris' CAC to open 6 points higher at 5,508
Over in Asia, shares neared nine-month highs after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin
said he hoped U.S.-China trade talks were approaching a final lap, while strong Chinese export
and bank loan data boosted confidence in the global economy.
(Danilo Masoni)
*****