LIVE MARKETS-Closing snapshot: back in the black it is!
* Miners, energy lead gainers
* Focus on earnings: UniCredit (EUREX: DE000A163206.EX - news) , Commerzbank (LSE: 21170377.L - news)
* Wall Street opens higher
LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity
markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her
on Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
CLOSING SNAPSHOT: BACK IN THE BLACK IT IS! (1606 GMT)
European stocks have once again reached breakeven for 2018 with gains across heavyweight
commodity, oil and financial stocks, shrugging off some heavy falls from Pandora (LSE: 0NQC.L - news) , Atos (Paris: FR0000051732 - news) and
Intertek.
Here's your closing snapshot:
(Kit Rees)
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"SIGNIFICANT NOISE WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF MARKET ANXIETY" (1404 GMT)
Berenberg economists are saying that, beyond trade wars, Italy poses the biggest threat to
their call that positive fundamentals will boost the Euro zone back to 2 percent growth in late
2018.
While they don't foresee a full-on Italian debt crisis, Berenberg caution that we could see
some "significant noise with occasional bouts of market anxiety" in the next 10 weeks as the
Italian government aims to present its budget in September.
"Wider yield spreads may force the radicals to tone down their plans. Still, the risk that
careless behaviour in Rome could soon trigger an Italian crisis is not negligible," write
Berenberg's economists.
(Kit Rees)
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U.S. STOCK FUTURES POINT TO CONTINUED GAINS AT THE OPEN (1244 GMT)
U.S. stock futures are building on Monday's gains, pointing to further advances in the major
averages at the start of regular session trading. This in wake of a near 3-percent snap higher
in the Shanghai Composite, and advances across European equity markets.
E-Mini S&P 500 futures suggest the S&P 500 set to pop about 6 points at the open. That would
put the index only about 0.5 percent from its 2872.87 January 26 peak. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq
Composite is up 5 straight days, its best run since May.
Of note, early action has the CBOE Volatility Index, which closed Monday at its lowest level
since the S&P 500's January top, breaking the 11.00 level.
Commodity-liked groups appear poised to bounce with NYMEX oil futures once again pressing
$70.00. This as U.S. sanctions on Iran are expected to tighten supplies.
Gold and silver are also rallying ahead of the open which may underpin an upturn in
beleaguered mining shares. The Philadelphia SE Gold/Silver Index closed Monday at its lowest
level since late-December 2016. Charts have it oversold on both a daily and weekly basis.
Dow component Walt Disney (Swiss: DIS-USD.SW - news) is expected to report its quarterly numbers after the closing
bell.
In terms of economic data releases today, JOLTS job openings numbers for June are due at
10:00 AM EDT/1400 GMT. The seasonally adjusted numbers are forecast to have risen to 6.646
million from 6.638 million in May. The Federal Reserve is likely to report that outstanding
credit extended to U.S. consumers rose to $15.25 billion in June, lower than $24.56 billion in
May (03:00 P.M. EDT/1900 GMT).
(Terence Gabriel)
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THE VIX SPIKE: WHAT HAS CHANGED, SIX MONTHS ON? (1227 GMT)
It was six months ago yesterday, on Feb 6, that the VIX spiked violently higher in a move
that surprised many and prompted a lot of head-scratching and hand-wringing about volatility and
the leveraged index-trackers market.
So how has the market evolved since then? GS analysts take the temperature of the VIX
market:
* VIX ETP positioning is nearly the longest it's ever been - partly due to the shrinkage of
products shorting the VIX after the notorious XIV imploded and the SVXY has seen outflows
* Leveraged Funds, mostly hedge funds, are showing their largest net short position since
November
(see below)
* VIX call prices are still pricing in a larger-than-usual probability of severe volatility
spikes
* VSTOXX and VIX levels have been unusually close (normally VSTOXX is higher)
GS therefore argues long VSTOXX, short VIX strategies are a good bet, "particularly if risk
resurfaces in Italy".
(Helen Reid)
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LOOKING AT LESSER-KNOWN STOCKS (1158 GMT)
For the manager with more freedom, Jefferies analysts have picked out some less well-known
stocks which are market leaders, have "sector-leading profitability" and are able to generate
free cash flow to equity (FCFE) consistently.
These stocks --which are covered on average by eight analysts-- include Burford Capital (Other OTC: BRFRF - news)
, Dometic, International Petroleum Corp, Thule,
Vesuvius (Frankfurt: A1J7UJ - news) , Intermediate Capital (Frankfurt: I2X2.F - news) and Fevertree.
On tonic maker Fevertree, which saw its shares jump 5.6 percent after its first-half results
two weeks ago, Jefferies analysts see the U.S. as the company's big growth opportunity as the
premium spirits market is significantly larger than the premium mixers market there.
But more broadly, Jefferies' picks are either Swedish or British companies and, bar two, all
came to market in the past decade. Their share price performance ranges from -7 percent to more
than 60 percent so far this year.
(Kit Rees)
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MIDDAY SNAPSHOT: BACK TO BLACK FOR 2018 (1118 GMT)
European stocks have once again reached breakeven for 2018 thanks to the current 0.6 percent
rise for the STOXX 600. The pan-European index is now up 0.5 percent on the year but still quite
far from its January high, as you can see in the chart below (left).
Things are looking much brighter on Wall Street with the S&P 500 (right) within touching
distance of its all-time record.
(Julien Ponthus)
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TECH STOCKS: DON'T PANIC! (1054 GMT)
Sheer 20 percent falls in Facebook (NasdaqGS: FB - news) and Twitter (Frankfurt: A1W6XZ - news) shares scared investors in the tech sector
and beyond, wary of any signs tech's seemingly unshakeable reign could be threatened.
"Given its size and performance during this bull market, we are sometimes asked if weakness
in tech will be the ultimate cause of the next bear market," write Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS-PB - news) strategists.
Indeed, that worry is on many investors' minds, but GS is here to say don't panic (yet).
They crunch the numbers to find it's not *that* uncommon for the FAANGs to show a 20% spread
in returns (see chart below).
And then there's always the growth factor. Yes, tech stocks are expensive on
price-to-earnings, but on a PEG ratio (price/earnings to growth) they trade at the same price as
the S&P 500 overall.
"In a world where structural growth has shifted lower, we like these companies, which can
deliver strong secular growth," GS concludes. The strategists have a pretty significant bet on
tech, overweight the sector in all of their regional equity allocations.
(Helen Reid)
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WHAT TO SELL THIS SUMMER? (0830 GMT)
European stocks are off to a positive start today but for investors looking for sell ideas,
here's Goldman Sachs with some suggestions.
The U.S. bank has picked up 6 stocks it believes are particularly vulnerable to de-rating as
they face headwinds from raw material inflation, short-cycle risks and complacent valuations.
Here they are, with downside risk in brackets:
* Bodycote (LSE: BOY.L - news) : Peak margins and peak multiples (-14%)
* Suedzucker (IOB: 0G7B.IL - news) : Hard times and great expectations (-13%)
* DMGT: Recent rally at odds with fundamentals (-10%)
* SKF (LSE: 0NWW.L - news) : Peaking pricing creates risks (-10%)
* Fortum (LSE: 0HAH.L - news) : Unattractive valuation with higher risk (-13%)
* Givaudan (LSE: 0QPS.L - news) : Cautious on Flavours & Fragrances (-14%)
"On average, our analysts see 12 percent downside to these stocks on a 12-month view (vs
around 8 percent average upside across our European coverage)," Goldman analysts write.
(Danilo Masoni)
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OPENING SNAPSHOT: GAINS ACROSS THE BOARD (0723 GMT)
European shares have opened higher across the board with all national benchmarks posting
gains in early deals and just a few sectors trading in the red (the worst performers are retail
stocks, down 0.4 percent). Miners, autos, oil & gas and banks are leading gainers, up between
0.5 and 1.4 percent.
Top movers on the STOXX are companies which posted results with Danish jeweller Pandora (Swiss: PNDORA.SW - news)
plummeting 16 percent after cutting its 2018 guidance, while Oerlikon
jumped 9 percent to the top of the pan-regional benchmark after the Swiss industrial group
raised its outlook following a strong update.
In the heavyweight banking sector, a solid update from UniCredit sent shares in
Italy's biggest lender by assets up 2 percent, while German peer Commerzbank (Xetra: CBK100 - news) fell 3
percent after results.
Here's your snapshot:
(Danilo Masoni)
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WHAT'S ON THE RADAR: UNICREDIT, COMMERZBANK, BEIERSDORF (IOB: 0DQ7.IL - news) , ZALANDO (Swiss: OXZALG.SW - news) (0645 GMT)
European stocks are eyeing a gain at the open as Asian markets recovered overnight and a
flurry of earnings distracts investors from broader problems like the ongoing U.S. protectionism
push which are harder to pin down and price in to markets.
More banks steal the spotlight with Germany's Commerzbank and Italy's Unicredit reporting.
Unicredit results were likely to boost the stock, with traders indicating the Italian lender
up 1 to 3 percent after its second-quarter profit fell less than expected, with analysts
describing the results as solid. Its CET1 capital adequacy ratio fell, however, due to the sharp
sell-off in Italian government bonds on political upheaval.
Commerzbank is seen edging up 1 percent after swinging to a net profit in Q2 but warning
costs could rise.
German cosmetics maker Beiersdorf raised its sales guidance, likely boosting the stock.
Danish jewellery maker Pandora, meanwhile, is seen suffering a drop of up to 10 percent at
the open after it cut sales and profit margin guidance for this year following falls in both in
the second quarter. Pandora also announced nearly 400 job cuts as it tries to protect
profitability.
Europe's biggest pure online fashion retailer, Zalando, disappointed with weaker than
expected results and trimmed its full-year sales and profit outlook. Its shares are seen down
3-5 percent.
Among UK firms reporting, the world's largest interdealer broker TP ICAP said Paris would be
its EU headquarters after Britain leaves the bloc. It also reported a more than 52 percent drop
in first half profit, likely to bruise the stock.
Car (HKSE: 0699-OL.HK - news) dealership chain Pendragon (LSE: PDG.L - news) also reported weak results with underlying pre-tax profit
falling 41 percent in the first half due to its UK motoring division – in a further sign of
British consumers’ uncertainty hurting companies’ performance.
Keep an eye on these:
IHG quarterly room revenue growth accelerates on China demand
Hargreaves Lansdown (Frankfurt: DMB.F - news) posts record FY assets on inflows, market gains
Interdealer broker TP ICAP selects Paris for EU hub, profit falls
Zalando trims outlook after disappointing quarter
Meggitt (Other OTC: MEGGF - news) says on track to meet upgraded revenue guidance
UK dealership Pendragon's H1 profit drops 41 percent
Beiersdorf raises 2018 sales guidance
German industrial output falls more than expected in June
Grammer (IOB: 0OQX.IL - news) warns of H2 risks from new anti-pollution tests
(Helen Reid)
*****
EARLY MORNING HEADLINE ROUND-UP (0544 GMT)
Weaker results from Unicredit could weigh on shares in the Italian lender today. Its net
profit fell 13.3 percent in Q2 due to higher charges and provisions, and its capital buffer was
eroded from 13.06% at the end of Q1, to 12.51% - likely partly due to its holdings of Italian
government bonds which sold off violently in May.
Here are all the earnings and news on our radar so far:
UniCredit Q2 net profit falls on higher charges, provisions
Commerzbank swings to net profit in second quarter
Deutsche Post Q2 profit drops on post, parcel woes
Tax cuts in Sweden boost Uniper (Swiss: UNIPE.SW - news) 's first-half profit
OC Oerlikon Corporation AG Pfaeffikon Q2 EBITDA Up At CHF 113 Mln
Galenica H1 Net Sales Up By 0.9% To CHF 1.57 Bln
BHP asks for government mediation in talks at Chile (Stuttgart: 704599.SG - news) 's Escondida
AT&T (Sao Paolo: ATTB34.SA - news) , Telefonica (LSE: 826858.L - news) bids win Mexican spectrum auction
Swissquote Group Holding Acquires Luxembourg Bank Internaxx
(Helen Reid)
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EUROPEAN STOCKS SET TO EDGE HIGHER (0530 GMT)
European stocks are set to inch up today after closing lower yesterday when disappointing
results dampened indices.
Earnings from Commerzbank, Unicredit, Deutsche Post (IOB: 0H3Q.IL - news) , and Uniper, among others will keep
investors busy today.
Spreadbetters expect London's FTSE to open 6 points higher at 7,670, Frankfurt's DAX to open
18 points higher at 12,616 and Paris' CAC to open 8 points higher at 5,486.
A rebound in battered Chinese stock markets helped lift Asian equities, which also drew
support from earnings-led gains on Wall Street in a welcome relief for investors grappling with
an intensifying Sino (Dusseldorf: 1205802.DU - news) -U.S. trade conflict.
(Helen Reid)
*****
(Reporting by Helen Reid, Danilo Masoni, Julien Ponthus and Kit Rees)