LIVE MARKETS-European shares turn around, DAX bounces from 11K support
* European shares turn higher, STOXX 600 at session high
* Asian shares dip on growth, trade worries
* ASML (Milan: ASML.MI - news) , Metro Bank (Frankfurt: 6MB.F - news) , Ingenico (Paris: FR0000125346 - news) results disappoint
* But Carrefour shares boosted after Q4 update
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters
stocks reporters and anchored today by Julien Ponthus. Reach him on Messenger to share your
thoughts on market moves: julien.ponthus.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
EUROPEAN SHARES TURN AROUND, DAX BOUNCES FROM 11K SUPPORT (1303 GMT)
European shares have progressively erased their losses and now that U.S. futures point to a
positive open on Wall Street, the STOXX 600 benchmark is trading at a fresh session high, up
around 0.4 percent, while the DAX is moving comfortably above the key 11,000-points mark.
The trade-exposed auto sector remains the biggest loser even though it's off lows, while
more gains among retailers after solid updates from Carrefour (LSE: 0NPH.L - news) and Ahold, and fresh strength
among financials (JPMorgan AM said it saw opportunities there) are driving the move
higher.
Stephane Ekolo, equity strategist at Tradition Securities, sees four triggers for the
turnaround:
1. Technical - the DAX and the Euro STOXX 50 both bounced off before reaching key support
levels at
11,000 points and 3,080 points respectively
2. Retail charging courtesy of strong reports for the likes of Carrefour and Ahold Delhaize
3. Upbeat Brexit Newsflow - it seems a no-deal Brexit is becoming less likely
4. Not a lot of volume which can exacerbate the positive trend
"That being said, I am not so sure that this rebound is sustainable, without more positive
newsflows, be corporate or on the US-China trade dispute front," he says.
Here's your snapshot:
(Danilo Masoni)
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STRESS TEST INSURERS? THEY PASSED! (1110 GMT)
Insurance stocks have outperformed both the market and their bank cousins in 2018, helped by
good fundamentals and relatively cheap valuations, but there are worries creeping in that a fall
in equities and credit downgrades could hurt them.
But should investors really be concerned?
HSBC analysts Dhruv Gahlaut and Thomas Fossard don't believe so and to be sure they have
stressed tested Europe's largest insurance groups.
The result? Passed! The sector is well positioned to manage an extreme event, they say.
"Our stress test shows that the average solvency ratio falls to 146% from 201% assuming a
50% fall in equities, 100 bps lower interest rates and credit migration (of one letter-rating
downgrade across the entire corporate portfolio)," they write.
"We also stress test our earnings estimates and highlight that 2019e normal DPS cover falls
to 1.4x from 1.9x, when assuming 2ppts deterioration in non-life combined ratio, 50 bps drop in
non-life yield and corporate bond defaults (similar to the maximum rate observed since 1940"
On top of that the sector still trades at the lower end of its 10-year discount to the
market, EPS revisions for 2019-20 are positive since the start of 2018, and share prices offer
total dividend yields of 7 pct for 2018-19.
(Danilo Masoni)
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OPENING SNAPSHOT: POOR UPDATES DRAG EUROPEAN SHARES LOWER (0842 GMT)
European shares are down for a third straight session as a string of poor earnings updates
including from ASML, a major supplier to the world's largest computer chipmakers,
added to concerns over trade and global economic growth.
In early deals the pan-regional STOXX 600 was down around 0.4 percent, while other regional
benchmarks were also slightly in the red. Trade-exposed autos were the biggest sectoral
fallers, down 1.3 percent, while defensive sectors such as utilities outperformed.
ASML (down 3 pct) was the biggest negative weight on the STOXX 600, while among top fallers
were also Metro Bank (down 26 pct) and French payments firm Ingenico (Swiss: ING.SW - news) (down 16
pct) which reported disappointing results.
Not all updates were that bad.
Carrefour (Swiss: CA.SW - news) (up 5 pct) was a notable exception: the French supermarket expressed
confidence over its strategy plan and it seems that the impact from the yellow vest protests in
France was not as bad as feared.
Here's your opening snapshot:
(Danilo Masoni)
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A FEW NASTY FALLS EXPECTED AT THE OPEN (0754 GMT)
European shares are set to begin morning trading lower than they closed yesterday as a combo
of worries on global growth and on the Sino (Dusseldorf: 1205802.DU - news) /U.S. trade negotiations weighed on global markets,
from Wall Street to Asia.
A new batch of corporate results will animate the session and so far there are already a few
stocks indicated with strong losses at the open, notably Metrobank down up to 10 percent after a
EPS miss.
Premarket indications show little love and a likely fall for ASML which said it sees 2019
sales growth despite delay in orders. French payments business Ingenico is also seen retreating
after a warning on core profit.
Much better signs for supermarkets Carrefour and Ahold for their Q4 figures.
Also positive views on Antofagasta (Other OTC: ANFGF - news) and its copper output rise, and for Deutsche Boerse (IOB: 0H3T.IL - news) .
Perhaps an important chapter in the Nissan/Ghosn saga with Renault (LSE: 0NQF.L - news) convening a board meeting
to turn the page.
Here are a few headlines:
French payments business Ingenico warns on core profit
Carrefour confident over overhaul despite Q4 'yellow vests" hit
Deutsche Boerse sees adjusted net profit growth of around 17 pct in 2018
Supermarket retailer Ahold Delhaize's Q4 sales meet expectations -
ASML sees 2019 sales growth despite delay in orders
Renault convenes board to turn page on Ghosn era
Cocoa giant Barry Callebaut (IOB: 0QO7.IL - news) sees sales accelerating after Q1 miss
Antofagasta Q4 copper output rises 23.7 pct
(Julien Ponthus)
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FUTURES DIP (0713 GMT)
European futures have opened roughly as expected, that is in negative territory but without
any dramatic moves - yet.
Q4 headlines are starting to accumulate on our screens but don't seem to have what it would
take to drastically change the mood or paint Europe Inc in a new optimistic colour.
Here's your snapshot:
(Julien Ponthus)
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NO THRUST FOR EUROPEAN STOCKS (0626 GMT)
From global growth worries to trade war concerns, there just ain't much in store to prop up
European shares after Asia and Wall Street ended their session without any sudden new-found
faith in risky assets.
According to IG (Frankfurt: A0EARV - news) , financial spreadbetters expect London's FTSE to open 16 points lower,
Frankfurt's DAX and Paris' CAC, down 13 points and 16 points respectively.
CMC Markets (LSE: CMCX.L - news) has a similar, albeit slightly higher forecast.
(Julien Ponthus)
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