LIVE MARKETS-The S&P is likely to dip on May 31, or so goes this theory

* European stocks hover

* Italian shares, banks sink on draft 5Star-League agenda

* Focus on Airbus after WTO ruling

May 16 (Reuters) - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets

brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Danilo Masoni. Reach him on

Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: danilo.masoni.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

THE S&P IS LIKELY TO DIP ON MAY 31, OR SO GOES THIS THEORY (1013 GMT)

There is a trend whereby whenever big chunks of bonds held by the Federal Reserve hit their

maturity date, the S&P 500 is likely to decline, writes The Macro Tourist, a newsletter from

East West Investment Management.

"The days when the Federal Reserve has a large bond maturity have seen abnormally large

declines in the S&P 500," the note goes, pointing out that about 26 billion dollars of bonds

were maturing yesterday.

The S&P did end the day 0.68 percent down. According to our report however,

that fall was largely attributed to reignited inflation fears, rising U.S. government bond

yields and concerns about looming trade talks between the United States and China.

The Macro Tourist also points to a Twitter (Frankfurt: A1W6XZ - news) account which takes the view that there's a clear

correlation between maturity dates and the S&P's performance.

Looking ahead, The Macro Tourist warns that "the next big maturity day is May 31st" with

about 29 billion dollars.

Here's a chart below where you can see the correlation doesn't work each time, for instance

on Jan 31. Here's a link to The Macro Tourist blog: https://bit.ly/2KZFRXH

(Julien Ponthus)

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OPENING SNAPSHOT: Italy hit by debt report, Elior (Paris: FR0013204435 - news) and Crest Nicholson (Frankfurt: A1KCZN - news) tumble

Italian stocks are by far the laggards this morning, tumbling 0.9 percent while the

pan-European index manages a 0.2 percent gain. The report that 5-Star and League want the ECB to

forgive debt is weighing on the market, with bank stocks suffering 0.9 percent

falls.

In results Elior is, as expected, a big faller, down 15 percent and bottom of the STOXX 600

after its profit warning. The stock hit its lowest level since January 2015.

On the other hand Micro Focus is enjoying 9 percent gains after it signed a new $40

million contract earlier than expected, saying it would help bolster first-half revenue.

French rail transport equipment maker Alstom (LSE: 0J2R.L - news) jumped to its highest since July 2011

after reporting strong annual sales and profits.

And in the UK some dismal performances in the mid-cap market: Crest Nicholson is

sinking 12.4 percent, hitting its lowest level in 18 months, and on course for its worst losses

since the Brexit vote after cutting its margin forecast for the year, saying higher construction

prices were putting pressure on homebuilding.

Pub operator Mitchells & Butlers (LSE: MAB.L - news) is falling 8 percent after it also cited rising costs as a

reason for its profit dipping.

(Helen Reid)

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WHAT'S ON OUR RADAR FOR THE EUROPEAN OPEN (0651 GMT)

European shares are set to open without clear direction as geopolitics continue to dominate

headlines and rising U.S. treasury yields keep the euro hovering around five-month lows against

the dollar, providing some support. Futures on the DAX, CAC, FTSE were trading between a gain of

0.1 percent and a fall of 0.2 percent.

A U.S. threat overnight to impose sanctions against the EU after the WTO ruled that Airbus

received illegal government funding could further hit Airbus shares and spark fresh jitters over

trade wars. Airbus shares, which hit a record high earlier this month as investors continued to

buy into European aerodefence stocks, fell 0.9 percent on Tuesday following the WTO ruling.

Earnings updates will continue to drive single stock moves. Elior is seen down 7-10 percent

after Europe's third-largest catering group cut full-year guidance after posting

lower-than-expected preliminary results.

Italian stocks could be under fresh pressure after government bond yields jumped following

reports that the 5-Star Movement and League plan to ask the ECB to forgive 250 billion euros of

Italian debt, according to a draft of a coalition programme the parties are working on.

Other stock movers: French group Alstom posts higher annual sales and profits; Paddy Power (EUREX: 27913021.EX - news)

Betfair says in discussions to buy Fanduel; Micro Focus says early $40 mln contract to help H1

revenues; Burberry beats forecasts as market awaits new Tisci designs

(Danilo Masoni)

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EUROPEAN STOCK FUTURES DIP ON GEOPOLITICS, YIELDS (0629 GMT)

European stock futures have opened lower as geopolitical risk rears its ugly head again with

North Korea suspending peace talks with Seoul, and investors fret over a rapid rise in U.S. bond

yields.

UK results coming through include Burberry and Micro Focus:

Burberry beats forecasts with 2 pct rise in full-year profit

Micro Focus says early $40 mln contract will help H1 revenues

National Express (Frankfurt: 888871 - news) says on track to meet FY profit targets

PTSB pulls 0.9 bln euros of split mortgages from loan sale

Brewin Dolphin H1 pretax profit up 20.1 pct to 34.1 mln stg

Pub firm Mitchells & Butlers profit dips on rising costs

And some more headlines from companies on the continent, with French catering group Elior (Other OTC: ELORY - news)

not looking too good:

French Elior cuts FY guidance on tough competition

Orange (LSE: 0OQV.L - news) official calls Ivory Coast telecoms fire act of 'sabotage'

(Helen Reid)

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EARLY MORNING HEADLINE ROUNDUP (0547 GMT)

U.S. threatens sanctions as WTO raps Airbus subsidies

France says will respect WTO decision on Airbus aid

French group Alstom posts higher annual sales and profits

BMW (EUREX: BMWE.EX - news) targets group pre-tax margins of more than 10 pct

Geox (LSE: 0KHH.L - news) gives cautious revenue outlook amid store revamp

Italy's Mediaset Q1 net profits down 75 percent year-on-year

Fnac Darty, MediaMarktSaturn in purchasing alliance

Novartis (IOB: 0QLR.IL - news) top lawyer exits over payment to Trump lawyer

Credit Suisse (IOB: 0QP5.IL - news) commits $250 mln to Israeli healthcare fund

MEDIA-Paddy Power Betfair (Other OTC: PDYPF - news) close to acquiring fantasy sports site FanDuel

ISS (LSE: 0QRS.L - news) recommends not to back call for special auditor at Uniper (Swiss: UNIPE.SW - news)

And here are some market headlines:

> Asian shares fall as N. Korea suspends talks, U.S. yields climb

> Wall St drops as Treasury yields surge

> Nikkei falls as US yield spike, North Korea worries weigh

> Retail sales gain add fuel to U.S. bond selloff

> Dollar near 5-mth peak after benchmark Treasury yield vaults above 3 pct

> Gold prices edge up on short-covering

> Copper struggles as dollar hovers near five-month peak

> Oil dips on signs of ample supply despite OPEC cuts, Iran sanctions

(Danilo Masoni)

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MORNING CALL: EUROPEAN SHARES SEEN FLAT TO HIGHER (0521 GMT)

European shares are set for a mildly positive start today with financial spreadbetters

expecting London's FTSE to open 8 points higher at 7,731, while Frankfurt's DAX is seen up 27

points at 12,997 and Paris' CAC 1 point higher at 5,554.

Over in Asia, stocks dipped after Pyongyang abruptly called off talks with Seoul, throwing a

U.S.-North Korean summit into doubt, while surging bond yields revived worries about faster U.S.

interest rate hikes that could curb global demand.

(Danilo Masoni)

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