LIVE MARKETS-What a streak! Eurozone blue chips eye ninth day of gains
* European shares rise 0.7 pct
* Autos, banks lead gains
* Euro zone blue chips set for 9th day of gains
* Wall Street futures rise
Sept 20 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to
you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach her on Messenger to
share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
WHAT A STREAK! EUROZONE BLUE CHIPS EYE NINTH DAY OF GAINS (1300 GMT)
Relief that fresh U.S. and Chinese tariffs on reciprocal imports were less harsh than feared
is keeping sentiment high, lifting European equities further up as U.S. stock futures point to
another positive session on Wall Street.
Particularly in favour is the euro zone blue chip index. It is now up 0.9
percent, its strongest day since July 26 and firmly on track for nine sessions of gains in a
row.
What a streak! The last time it did nine straight positive sessions was in June 2010. More
than 8 years ago! Financials are the biggest driver of the bounce as investors are lured back
by cheap valuations.
(Danilo Masoni)
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UK RETAIL SALES RELIEF MASKS CONTINUED GLOOM ON REAL ESTATE (1214 GMT)
Today's retail sales figures have delivered a much-needed bit of relief to sterling and
indicated a silver lining to a gloomy outlook for the UK as British shoppers kept up their
strong summer spending spree in August.
But the retail real estate sector is still not luring in buyers.
"Many of the share prices look cheap but for a reason, and bar some M&A activity, we believe
it is best to stick with the relatively safer income generating stocks together with some of the
hands-on small/mid cap development/land plays," write Stifel's Miranda Cockburn and team.
They note the sector is more diverse than it used to be, but around 30 percent of the stocks
they cover are still retail-focused.
"In our view the only potential upside will come from some M&A activity," they say. "This
has got to be a possibility given share price weakness but with the current uncertain outlook we
think it is unlikely that anyone will want to pay up for regional shopping centre exposure."
The lower risk option they favour is income-generating stocks in student accommodation,
healthcare real estate, and industrial property, which as you can see below, trade at a slight
premium to book value, in contrast with many other REITs. Stifel points to Empiric, Assura (LSE: AGR.L - news) ,
Hansteen, and Mucklow.
Citing Investment Property Forum forecasts, the Stifel analysts also say central London
office markets are more resilient, which "may imply upside potential" depending, of course, on
the outcome of Brexit.
On that, here are the latest scenarios:
(Helen Reid)
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TRADE WAR ESCALATION RALLY: INFLATION MAY BE THE KEY (1051 GMT)
Inflation seems to be the missing piece of the puzzle as to why stock markets have reacted
with such panache to Beijing and Washington's escalation of tariffs.
The leading euro zone stocks index is now up an impressive 0.8 percent with
banks and autos leading the way.
On the tariffs, Credit Suisse (IOB: 0QP5.IL - news) global CIO Michael Strobaek notes "Equity markets rallied in
response and bond markets sold off."
"This is consistent with the expectation that, at this stage, the trade conflict still
barely changes global growth but inflation could rise," he explains in today's investment
committee note.
Societe Generale (Swiss: 519928.SW - news) echoes this view.
"Protectionist measures initially lead to higher inflation," strategists predict in their
cross-asset research note. "The U.S. equity market is already pricing in a rebound in growth and
inflation".
Remember the reflation, or "Trumpflation", trade that drove stock markets higher from
November 2016?
Maybe this - through protectionist measures - is how it ends up playing out. Below you can
see how the S&P 500 moves higher with inflation.
(Helen Reid)
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IT'S TIME TO TURN LESS BEARISH ON AUTOS, IT SEEMS (0958 GMT)
Autos is an unloved sector for equity investors, we know, but will that continue for much
longer? Probably there are some brighter times ahead.
Valuations look inexpensive and Kepler strategists say investors should now bring their
exposure back to neutral, adding to signs that broker sentiment towards the under-owned and
underperforming sector is improving. Today autos are leading gainers in Europe.
Here's Thomas Besson, autos analyst at Kepler, giving an account of last night's upgrade
from colleagues at the strategy team:
"They envisage a series of late-year bounces within Europe's depressed value universe in
segments that have been largely abandoned by investors. September and October demand data should
be key tests for such a potential bounce".
"Newsflow has been terrible for Autos over the last months, including warnings from darling
stocks. Weak relative earnings momentum (key driver for the sector this decade) appears to be
stabilising, maybe temporarily. A positive short-term signal," Besson adds.
In this chart we show how the PE valuation gap between the Auto index and the
European benchmark has been widening to fresh highs, as earnings estimates have been
downgraded for 16 weeks in a row.
For another bullish view on European autos, check out Redburn here:
(Danilo Masoni)
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POSITIVE, BUT RATHER FLATTISH OPEN FOR EUROPEAN SHARES (0716 GMT)
European shares have opened in positive territory alright but nothing extravagant really.
The trade-sensitive DAX is having a hard time keeping afloat and the pan-European STOXX 600
is up 0.1 percent.
All in all, this is broadly in line with the close in Asia and with the current levels of
U.S. futures for the S&P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq (Frankfurt: 813516 - news) .
(Julien Ponthus)
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WHAT'S ON THE RADAR FOR EUROPE: RIO TINTO (Hanover: CRA1.HA - news) , TOM TAILOR (IOB: 0MMJ.IL - news) , SAFESTYLE (0648 GMT)
European shares are set for a mixed start with futures trading between -0.1 and +0.1
percent. The leading euro zone stock index STOXX50E is on track for its ninth straight session
of gains as investors took a more bullish view of the China-U.S. trade war.
A focus for traders will be UK retail sales out this morning at 0830 GMT. Societe Generale
analysts expect retailers’ strong spring and summer to come to an end with August data likely to
show a drop in sales. Euro area consumer confidence out later in the day would also be watched.
On the corporate front a $3.2 billion share buyback programme from Rio Tinto will likely
boost the shares up around 2 percent.
Safestyle could fall 5 percent, traders said, after the window and door retailer and
installer warned on profits and said it does not anticipate an “immediate recovery” back to 2016
and 2017 levels of financial performance. The company’s poor performance adds to indications
Brits are withholding spending on big-ticket home improvement products in an uncertain
environment.
German fashion retailer Tom Tailor issued a profit warning likely to send the shares sinking
by 10 percent, traders predicted.
Inmarsat (Other OTC: IMASF - news) shares are seen rising 2 percent after the British satellite company said it would
collaborate with Japan’s Panasonic Avionics to provide in-flight broadband for commercial
airlines.
The stress in emerging markets is beginning to be felt by some companies with large
operations and revenues from EM: the world’s biggest spirits company said it expects this year’s
selloff in some EM currencies to knock 175 million pounds off net sales and 45 million off
full-year profits.
Lower levels of market volatility, meanwhile, hurt quarterly revenue at trading platform IG
Group.
In dealmaking news or noises Nestle (Swiss: NESN.VX - news) was seen rising 0.5 percent after it said it was
exploring strategic options for its skin health business.
French Connection (LSE: FCCN.L - news) 's half-year loss narrows;
IG Group qtrly revenue drops, hit by lower client activity
Emerging market turbulence to hit Diageo (LSE: DGE.L - news) sales, profit
UK's Kier reports higher FY profit with strong order book
Inmarsat and Panasonic (Swiss: MAELI.SW - news) partner on in-flight connectivity
Safestyle UK Sees Co To Generate Modest Operating Profit In Q4 Of 2018
(Helen Reid)
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EUROPEAN FUTURES OPEN FLAT (0615 GMT)
European futures have opened and are trading roughly flat. Not much action either on U.S.
futures but pre-trading indications are starting to come in. At the moment they're pointing to a
slight dip in BAT shares after the firm announced its CEO's retirement, and a 0.5 percent
increase in Nestle on its exploring strategic options.
(Julien Ponthus)
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EURO CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, UK RETAIL SALES IN FOCUS (0557 GMT)
On the economics front consumer confidence figures for the euro area will come out at 1400
GMT, while UK retail sales at 0830 GMT will give a read on the health of the British consumer.
"We expect Euro Area's consumer confidence to have mildly recovered in September, while UK
retail sales are expected to have corrected in August, after a good run in recent months," write
analysts at Societe Generale.
"Sales have had a sensational spring and summer," they add, saying in the August retail
sales data "it will finally be time for some limited payback". SocGen (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) predicts a fall of 0.5%
month-on-month, giving the usual strong caveats as the data is highly volatile.
(Helen Reid)
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EARLY MORNING HEADLINE ROUND-UP (0543 GMT)
Not much in the way of results this morning but some M&A news and share buybacks to keep
traders busy.
Rio Tinto announced a massive $3.2 billion share buyback programme - split between an
off-market share buyback for Australia-listed Rio Tinto shares plus further on-market purchases
of UK-listed Rio Tinto plc.
Nestle is exploring strategic options for its skin health unit as part of its increase in
focus on food, drinks and nutritional health products.
And in news after yesterday's close, Spanish bank Santander has transferred tens of billions
of pounds of assets and liabilities to its Madrid-based parent group in order to comply with new
ring-fencing rules coming into force in 2019.
Nestle to examine 'strategic options' for skin health unit
Rio Tinto announces $3.2 bln share buyback programme
British American Tobacco (Kuala Lumpur: 4162.KL - news) has candidate to replace retiring chief exec
Moncler Q3 "going well", says CEO at Milan Fashion Week
Volkswagen (IOB: 0P6N.IL - news) pulls out of Iran, according to U.S. official - Bloomberg
Santander shifts assets to Spanish parent to ring-fence UK unit
(Helen Reid)
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MORNING CALL: TRADE WAR RELIEF CONTINUES TO BUOY EUROPEAN STOCKS (0516 GMT)
European stocks are set to continue their rally this morning as investors price in a more
positive scenario for the China-U.S. trade war.
If the leading euro zone index keeps up its momentum it could clinch its ninth
straight session of gains, climbing to its highest in two weeks.
Asian stocks followed global indexes higher, as investors took a less bearish view on the
impact of the U.S.-China trade war on markets, a sharp contrast to dim expectations economists
had on U.S. growth amid the worsening tensions.
Spreadbetters expect London's FTSE to open 7 points higher at 7,338, Frankfurt's DAX to open
8 points higher at 12,227 and Paris' CAC to open 4 points higher at 5,398.
(Helen Reid)
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(Reporting by Helen Reid, Danilo Masoni, and Julien Ponthus)