Yahoo Finance How Much Will Your Disney Shares Be Worth in 5 Years? Stock Experts Project
After briefly reaching over $200 per share in 2021, Disney’s stock price tumbled below $80 per share in the fall of 2023. Over the past few months, however, Disney’s stock has been climbing back up, particularly after what was generally seen as a positive earnings report for fiscal Q1 2024.
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As of the end of February 2024, the stock price sits at over $111 per share. But will Disney shares reclaim their previous highs in the years to come? Or was that a temporary blip that Disney will struggle to recapture, especially as competition stiffens amongst competitors like Netflix and Comcast?
Predicting stock prices is difficult, especially when looking at long-range forecasts, considering that so much can change for a company both internally and externally.
That said, one way to think about future stock prices is to look at the average of analyst estimates. The average one-year price target on Disney is $116.71, with a high of $136 and a low of $82, according to Nasdaq. In other words, the average analyst projection is that Disney shares will rise by roughly 5% a year from now. Some see even more upside, though, while others think the stock will fall back to around where it was last fall.
2025 and Beyond
Past 2025, it’s not as clear what experts think will happen with Disney’s stock, but one way to look at the issue is to compare Disney shares to the overall stock market.
“We believe the stock price fully reflects recent challenges Disney has faced and, as a result, there is room to the upside. We expect it to keep pace with market growth over the next three to five years,” said Deiya Pernas, CFA and co-founder of Pernas Research.
By that, Pernas means that his firm projects Disney will grow at roughly an 8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), which is generally the average stock market return expectation.
If Disney’s stock grew at an 8% CAGR over the next five years, that could mean the share price reaches in the ballpark of $163 by 2029, but keep in mind that averages don’t always pan out, and this is just an approximation.
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Opportunities Ahead
While it’s hard to pin down exactly what Disney shares might be worth in five years, one way to think about the stock is to assess whether you think Disney is well positioned for growth in the coming years.
“Over the next five years, Disney’s stock performance will likely hinge on its capacity to enrich content offerings and devise effective strategies for content consumption, especially amid consumers’ increasing digital engagement, crucial for their strategic transition success,” said Pernas.
One area of Disney’s multi-faceted business to consider is streaming. Disney-owned Hulu added a net of 1.2 million subscribers last quarter, but Disney+ core subscribers dropped by 1.3 million. However, Disney projected in its last earnings report to add between 5.5 million and 6 million Disney+ core subscribers in the fiscal second quarter.
And, across its combined streaming businesses — which also includes services like ESPN+ — Disney projects to be profitable by fiscal Q4 2024.
The Crystal Ball
Looking further into the future, you might consider Disney’s ability to capture more customers amidst streaming wars and how that could affect the stock price. From 2023 to 2029, Digital TV Research projected that global streaming video on demand will grow by 321 million more subscribers, though they projected that Netflix will still be the leader by 2029, with over 100 million more subscribers than Disney+.
Still, streaming is just part of Disney’s empire. While that might become more important in the coming years, the company still makes lots of money from areas like theatrical releases, which then can tie back into the streaming business. In 2023, Disney made an estimated $4.83 billion in box office ticket sales globally across 17 films, according to The Hollywood Reporter.
In the years to come, Disney has some big names set to hit theaters, such as “Moana 2” in November 2024. In 2025, Disney is planning to release movies like “Captain America: Brave New World” and “Avatar 3.” In 2026 and beyond, Disney is also planning to release blockbusters like “Frozen 3” and “Toy Story 5.”
As Disney’s CEO Bob Iger pointed out on the company’s last earnings call, these releases will also help drive growth in the company’s Experiences business. Experiences, which includes areas like theme parks, is currently Disney’s most profitable business segment.
Still, it’s hard to say exactly how all of this will translate into stock prices. Disney has a lot of potential to keep growing in the years to come, but many other entertainment companies are also trying to capture consumers’ attention and wallets.
“We think it provides decent value for investors but it is not a slam dunk. Disney management will need to execute on delivering on growth in a competitive market,” said Pernas. “Their culture of content creation is an advantage, and it remains to be seen if Disney will be able to leverage this to gain back lost share.”
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