Is NIOX Group Plc (LON:NIOX) Trading At A 27% Discount?

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, NIOX Group fair value estimate is UK£0.95

• Current share price of UK£0.69 suggests NIOX Group is potentially 27% undervalued

• The UK£0.78 analyst price target for NIOX is 17% less than our estimate of fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of NIOX Group Plc (LON:NIOX) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

View our latest analysis for NIOX Group

The Method

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (£, Millions)	UK£14.4m	UK£14.0m	UK£16.6m	UK£19.8m	UK£21.3m	UK£22.4m	UK£23.4m	UK£24.2m	UK£24.9m	UK£25.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 5.22%	Est @ 4.19%	Est @ 3.46%	Est @ 2.95%	Est @ 2.60%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9%	UK£13.4	UK£12.3	UK£13.6	UK£15.2	UK£15.3	UK£15.0	UK£14.7	UK£14.2	UK£13.7	UK£13.1

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£141m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£26m× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (6.9%– 1.8%) = UK£509m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= UK£509m÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)¹⁰= UK£262m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£402m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£0.7, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 27% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at NIOX Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.932. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for NIOX Group

Strength

• Currently debt free.

• Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

• Earnings declined over the past year.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Medical Equipment market.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the British market.

• Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.

Threat

• Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For NIOX Group, we've put together three additional factors you should further examine:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for NIOX Group we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.

2. Future Earnings: How does NIOX's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the AIM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.