Q3 2023 Centerspace Earnings Call

Participants

Anne M. Olson; President, CEO, Secretary & Executive Trustee; Centerspace

Bhairav Patel; Executive VP & CFO; Centerspace

Bradley Barrett Heffern; Analyst; RBC Capital Markets, Research Division

Buck Horne; SVP of Equity Research; Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division

Michael Patrick Gorman; MD & REIT Analyst; BTIG, LLC, Research Division

Robin Magnus Haneland; Senior Associate; BMO Capital Markets Equity Research

Wesley Keith Golladay; Senior Research Analyst; Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division

Presentation

Operator

(technical difficulty) Centerspace's Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2023, was filed with the SEC yesterday after the market closed. Additionally, our earnings release and supplemental disclosure package have been posted to our website at centerspacehomes.com and filed on Form 8-K. It's important to note that today's remarks will include statements about our business outlook and other forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties discussed in our filing under the section titled Risk Factors and in our other filings with the SEC.
We cannot guarantee that any forward-looking statement will materialize, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Please refer to our earnings release for reconciliations of any non-GAAP information, which may be discussed on today's call. I'll now turn it over to Anne Olson for the company's prepared remarks.

Anne M. Olson

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Centerspace's third quarter earnings call. With me this morning is Bhairav Patel, our Chief Financial Officer. We're happy to be here today to discuss with you our third quarter results, our outlook for the remainder of 2023 and an update on our investment activity. We're pleased with our results on revenue and expenses. And year-to-date, we've increased core FFO by 6.8% year-over-year.
Starting with revenue. In our same-store portfolio, we achieved a 5.7% year-over-year increase. This is slightly ahead of our expectations as we realized sequential revenue growth even if new lease rental rates have moderated. With respect to revenue trends, in the third quarter, we executed 1/3 of our lease expiration. On same-store new lease trade-outs we achieved 2.3% increases and 4.9% increases on renewals, resulting in a 3.9% blended lease trade out.
Sequentially, market rent is declining as leasing slows into the fourth quarter, and we expect that trend to continue. In October, our same-store leasing trade-outs look positive at a blended 0.8%, which is a combination of new lease trade-outs of negative 2.4% and renewal lease rental rates increasing 5.3%. This slowdown in leasing has been factored into our revenue guidance and with over 86% of our leases in the books for 2023, we're focusing on occupancy to close out the year and maintain a strong position headed into 2024. This will capitalize on the stability of our portfolio fundamentals with 23.8% rent to household income levels and a collection rate in the third quarter of 99.6%.
With respect to expenses, we had a 6.1% year-over-year increase. The largest driver of increases continue to be real estate taxes and insurance. This quarter, noncontrollable expenses were up 11.3% year-over-year, driven by a 21.4% increase in insurance costs. We are not anticipating that we'll be seeing any relief on the insurance front into 2024, so we will focus on what we can control. Cost control measures implemented at the beginning of the year continue to benefit our repairs and maintenance costs. This and lower utilities expense are offsetting the impact of increased on-site compensation. Our overall results also benefit from lower G&A expenses after the CEO transition earlier in the year.
Our results and outlook for the remainder of the year led us to increase our guidance. Bhairav will cover our guidance projections in more detail in his remarks, but I wanted to highlight that we reduced our estimate of 2023 value-add capital spend due to timing of projects. We have seen market-specific softening in some leasing that is keeping our eyes sharp on our underwritten premiums, and we will maintain discipline and stay nimble into next year if there are projects that don't hit our expected returns. On balance, we're focusing our value-add capital on our highest return opportunities, which at this time are in the smart home and smart community category. Our current plan has implementation of smart home technology and about 50% of our total communities by the end of 2024.
In addition to this implementation, during the quarter, we completed 350 in-unit renovations as well as associated common area amenity enhancements. Moving to investment activity. Earlier this month, we announced that we had sold 4 communities in Minot, North Dakota, marking our exit from the Minot market for an aggregate sales price of $82.5 million. This disposition included approximately 50,000 square feet of commercial space. We also closed on an acquisition in Fort Collins, Colorado, Lake Vista Apartment Homes was purchased for $94.5 million, approximately a 5% cap rate. The acquisition included the assumption of $52.7 million in mortgage debt with an attractive interest rate of 3.45%.
Our year-to-date transactions continue to benefit portfolio quality, and we're pleased with the execution of our dispositions and the addition of Lake Vista, which is a 2011 build community with 303 homes. Our entrance into the Fort Collins MSA creates a broader geographic footprint in Colorado. And as an extension of the operating scale and efficiencies we have built in the Mountain West. We like the diverse economic base in Fort Collins including health care, high-tech manufacturing and education. Cost of homeownership is high with a median single-family home value of $560,000 and the market features significant outdoor amenities, including being a gateway to Rocky Mountain National Park. Otherwise, transaction activity is slow as price discovery continues and we maintain focus on strength in our balance sheet for when activity picks up. Now I'll turn it over to Bhairav to discuss our financial results, balance sheet and outlook for the remainder of 2023.

Bhairav Patel

Thanks, Anne, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased to report another quarter of strong earnings with core FFO of $1.20 per diluted share, driven by a 5.4% year-over-year increase in same-store NOI. On a sequential basis, same-store NOI decreased by 3.7%, driving a sequential decline in core FFO as revenue was relatively flat, while expenses grew due to higher spend in certain categories typical of the summer months when we have a huge chunk of our leases expiring. Our balance sheet remains in one of the strongest positions the company has experienced. We ended the quarter with no balance on our line of credit and a weighted average interest rate of 3.46%.
We have a well-laddered maturity schedule with a weighted average maturity of approximately 7 years and minimal debt coming due in the near term. Our net debt to EBITDA pro forma for our Lake Vista acquisition and Minot dispositions is approximately 7x. This metric includes the mortgage we assumed as part of the Lake Vista purchase. As the coupon of 3.45% on the mortgage, we assumed is significantly below the current market rate, it resulted in a fair market value discount of $3.9 million on the date of acquisition. This discount will be amortized with the remaining term of just under 3 years at a rate of $370,000 per quarter and will increase our interest expense relative to the coupon payment.
Consistent with our past practice, we will make an adjustment in calculating our core FFO. Historically, this adjustment has decreased our core FFO per share as we have been amortizing above-market debt. Now I will discuss our financial outlook for 2023. Based on our Q3 results, we are increasing the midpoint of our full year 2023 core FFO guidance by $0.02 to $4.67 per diluted share. There were no changes to the expected increases in same-store NOI or revenues at the midpoint, where we still expect 9.25% and 7.25% increases, respectively, as revenues and expenses were generally in line with expectations during the quarter.
We were able to capture a loss to lease in a bulk of expirations before we saw rental rates and demand soften towards the end of peak leasing season, which is something we experienced at the same time last year and generally aligns with historical trends for the portfolio. On the expense side, we have seen decreases in certain controllable categories that grew significantly last year, and we expect the trend to continue.
Lastly, after completing our Minot dispositions and Lake Vista acquisition, guidance incorporates no further transactions for the year. To conclude, we are pleased to report another quarter of strong operating results while simultaneously advancing our key strategic priorities of improving portfolio quality and market exposure through capital recycling. I want to compliment the team for their flawless execution of our plan in an extremely challenging transaction environment. And with that, I will turn it back to the operator to open up the line for questions.

Question and Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions) We will now take our first question from Brad Heffern from RBC Capital Markets.

Bradley Barrett Heffern

Yes. On the new lease number in October, Bhairav, it sounded like you said that, that's a relatively normal number for October. Is that correct? And I guess just any color as to whether you're seeing any additional pressure versus what you would normally see on lease rates?

Anne M. Olson

Brad, this is Anne. Thanks for your question. I think Bhairav did reiterate that is fairly normal. We have seen through the second half of the year, in particular, a real return to pre-COVID seasonality after a couple of years of very steep run-up. So we aren't concerned about what we're seeing in October. It is pretty isolated to markets where we had very steep increases in the Mountain West and/or have more supply pressure on a relative basis than the rest of our markets, that would be Billings, Rapid City and the other Mountain West, a little bit in Denver. We're down in October, about 0.9% in new leases, so not real steep and then we're about flat in Minneapolis.

Bradley Barrett Heffern

Okay. Got it. And then on supply, not something that you typically have to deal with, but that's obviously been the theme this quarter. So what are the markets where you're seeing elevated supply? I think you just gave a couple? And then what are your expectations for supply in 2024?
Yes, that's a great question. It certainly is a big theme. One of the hallmarks of our portfolio is our markets are more insulated from supply. They're smaller, but that also means that they're more susceptible to supply. So some place like Billings, which is a small market, has very little supply, but it has impacted it slightly there. I'd say our most supply affected markets are Denver and Minneapolis. We feel good about our position in those markets.
Our rents are still at a level below new -- brand new products to keep us a little bit insulated, but we are feeling pressure there. With respect to 2024, I think like most of the industry, we're really expecting supply to moderate. And in fact, unlikely to see a lot of new products coming on or starting lease-up in 2024, but we may have some product that has taken longer to lease that falls into 2024. We expect the effect of supply to be much muted in 2024.

Operator

Our next question comes from John Kim from BMO Capital Market.

Robin Magnus Haneland

This is Robin Haneland sitting in with John. I wanted to touch on the focus on occupancy for the remainder of the year, which -- what level of occupancy translates to the respective high and low end on the same-store revenue? And could you also give us a sense of how occupancy is split between your value-add and stabilized same-store portfolio?

Bhairav Patel

Robin, this is Bhairav. Yes. So with respect to Q4, we expect occupancy to be in the mid-94% range. That is what we have kind of built into the guidance of, I would say, 94.5% to 94.8% is what we are kind of factoring into the guidance. And with respect to value add, it's about 25 basis points, which is attributable to value add from an occupancy perspective.

Robin Magnus Haneland

Got it. And do you consider Fort Collins, a stand-alone market from Denver? And could we expect future investments in the market?

Anne M. Olson

Yes. Fort Collins is near Denver, but not -- but does have its own MSA and some of its own economic drivers particularly with respect to Colorado State University and Hewlett Packard has a large base there. So a little less energy and gas concentration than the Denver market -- the core of the Denver market. So it does have its own demographics and available information, a little bit less supply driven there. So we do consider it a separate market. It is an extension for us of Denver from a regional and scale basis on an operations basis, it's within 30 minutes of some of our assets that are in the Denver MSA, including our asset in Longmont. And I do -- we are going to look there to continue to scale out that Mountain West platform. So when we see some transactions come back, we would like to see more in Fort Collins.

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Wes Golladay from Baird.

Wesley Keith Golladay

Going back to that smart home technology rollout you put in this year, how much of a lift to see for revenue was that this year? And would you expect a greater lift next year?

Anne M. Olson

So this year, we started this year. So the increase on the revenue side has been relatively minor simply because we're in the middle of the rollout. We think that, that will continue into next year. There isn't a large component. I think the premiums on those are about $40 to $60 a unit. So not a massive lift on the revenue side. But we really do expect a lot of expense savings particularly into next year from some of this, our return, our calculated ROI that we're targeting on those is about 21.4%. So great investment. It's a combination of cost savings for us and revenue.

Wesley Keith Golladay

And then you did a lot of capital recycling of weight. And just wondering when you look at the portfolio now, see where pricing is, is there a chance to do more of that?

Anne M. Olson

I think so. We're really taking a keen eye to what in our portfolio is performing well, what markets and types of assets, we think have long-term growth potential. And where we may do some trading out. The flip side of the coin on the dispositions is that there's a real dearth of acquisition opportunities particularly in markets that we like, there's a lot of capital still waiting to be placed even with high interest rates and a lot of sellers to our holding. So we do see on the disposition side, we think we can still achieve really good pricing given the amount of capital. With respect to the Minot sale, we had 4 full portfolio best and final offers, which we felt was a very strong bid pool for those assets in North Dakota, so we're keeping a strong eye on it, and we'd like to be well positioned, really focusing on the balance sheet now, so that we can take advantage of what opportunities come, whether those be in the form of capital recycling or new opportunities.

Operator

We now have a follow-up question from Brad Heffern from RBC Capital Markets.

Bradley Barrett Heffern

Just a couple of quick little things. Bhairav, can you give the loss to lease on the earn-in that you're expecting for 2024 currently?

Bhairav Patel

Sure. The loss to lease, as it stands as of today is about 2.8%. The earn-in is about 1.5% now, this has kind of declined. As you know, it's a point-in-time number. So this has declined over the summer months into today, and that's a similar trend that we expected last year into this time as well.

Bradley Barrett Heffern

Got it. And then on the expense picture for '24, I think you said no relief expected on insurance, not expecting you to give guidance, but would you expect to relief overall on expenses next year? Or should we expect them to remain elevated?

Anne M. Olson

Well, am I giving direction to you or to the people running my budgets here, Brad? I think what we're going to see and what we're starting to see as we have started to see some of the budgets come in for next year. I think we're going to see some relief on taxes. Those are going to stay relatively flat. I think our portfolio was very fully valued. And with the higher interest rates, we have good reason to believe that those will stay relatively flat, insurance, no relief.
In other places, over the past couple of years, we've had a lot of pressure on wages and on-site compensation. I think we could see that moderate some back to normal levels. 3% to 4% there rather than the double digits we've seen in the past couple of years. And -- but repairs and maintenance and turn costs continue to be a struggle as vendors are difficult to find, and they are still feeling some inflationary pressure in those services -- professional services category. So I think we're optimistic that we'll be able to hold revenue and grow NOI next year. That's really our core goal and focus right now is making sure that we can grow the NOI.

Operator

Our next question is from Buck Horne from Raymond James.

Buck Horne

Just wondering if you could comment on any recent updates on leasing traffic trends, either physical traffic in the communities or online? How has that been trending through the end of October?

Anne M. Olson

Yes, sure. Starting in June and July, we really saw kind of a slowdown in leasing traffic. We have been able to offset that slowdown, which through the third quarter was about 20% year-over-year less leasing traffic, and that would be a combination of online foot traffic phone. And we've been able to offset that with higher retention, more people are staying in place, that makes sense, less people are looking, and so they're staying where they are and also with higher closing ratio.
So we've really been focused on making sure that our leasing techniques are effective, that we're meeting the customer where they are and really getting those leases in the door. In October, we're seeing that same slowdown, it feels seasonal. In lot of our markets, people don't like to move in the winter. And generally, people are looking a little bit further out. So people coming in today are looking for apartments for November, December. We're feeling a seasonal slowdown there, but nothing that's concerning to us from an occupancy standpoint, we feel like we're going to be able to meet our goals this year.

Buck Horne

Very helpful. And just following up on the personnel or just the cost you've seen in terms of just wage and on-site costs. I'm just curious if you're thinking about how you may be competing against more lease-up properties to year. Is there an issue with other developers or other properties potentially coming in and trying to poach some of your employees to get their properties leased up if they're familiar with those markets? Or how do you manage that process and maintain good retention with your on-site staff?

Anne M. Olson

That's a great question, and you're highlighting an issue that I think is facing all operators across the country, which is there is no pipeline of new leasing team and/or maintenance professionals or anyone who works on site for us. And so as new supply is delivered in the amount of units and communities out there, it does stretch the same staffing pool. So we have been focused on retention in the way of professional development, additional training opportunities and really trying to get some career pathing going for our on-site personnel to make sure and culture is huge for us, making sure that this is a great place to work.
And then also on the replacement side, we're really focusing on talent acquisition, onboarding and making sure that we can get the right candidates and give them the tools to be successful right out of the gate. Another huge thing for us, as you know, is trying to leverage the technology that we've invested in to make it what is -- can be a very simple business, easy to execute on-site. And I think the easier we can make it for them to be successful in their job is a better chance we're going to have to keep them from going to that lease up down the street.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Gorman from BTIG.

Michael Patrick Gorman

Anne, I was wondering if you could just talk about some of the new supply in some of your markets and the possibility that given the financing challenges that might turn into potential opportunities if the developers can't roll out financing or maybe can't get the lease-up done quickly enough? And then maybe if you're seeing that and then what your appetite would be to take on lease-up potential through acquisitions?

Anne M. Olson

I think there's two facets to what we're looking at from an opportunity perspective for investment, to your question. One is existing developments that might have refinance risk and/or a developer who wants to redeploy that capital because of timing or otherwise. We are interested in stepping in, probably not at an early-stage lease-up. But we have before taken properties that are between 75 and 90 or just coming into stabilization where you really have that first full year of lease expirations to work through. That would have been the case for us with Lyra, which we acquired in Denver in September of 2022, that had just finalized lease-up, had a developer that for numerous reasons, needed to get out of it.
So we are looking for those opportunities. We think that pipeline is going to grow. And then the other side is developers who are needing additional equity, we're really out there looking for opportunities to place mezzanine financing that might give us an opportunity to own the asset upon stabilization. So we've taken a few of those full circle in the past couple of years, and that's another place where we see opportunities in that development pipeline for us.

Operator

We will now take a follow-up question from John Kim from BMO Capital Market.

Robin Magnus Haneland

Hi, Robin here, again. We've heard reports on new tenant application fraud. Is there anything you've seen in your markets? And what is your bad debt today? And where do you see it going in the near term?

Anne M. Olson

Yes. We haven't seen very much fraud. Historically, we've had a little. When we did the new implementation with Yardi, we really (technical difficulty) processes. So we have kind of a dual verification process and we haven't seen much fraud there. On the bad debt side, Bhairav can comment on that.

Bhairav Patel

Yes. So I mean, for Q3, our bad debt was about 30 basis points to 40 basis points. That is consistent with pre-COVID trend, so we have seen a return to normalization over there. We typically see that fluctuate between 25 and 50 basis points, and we've been towards the lower end of that throughout the year.

Operator

We have no further questions registered. So with that, I will hand back to your host, Anne Olson for final remarks.

Anne M. Olson

Thank you. Thanks, everyone, for joining, and I'd like to thank our teams for the tremendous work they have done. It's been a year of uncertainty, and everyone here at Centerspace has continued to prioritize was really important to drive results. So I'm grateful to be here and for all of you that joined us this morning. Have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.