Yahoo Finance Revenue Miss: Aurubis AG Fell 6.1% Short Of Analyst Revenue Estimates And Analysts Have Been Revising Their Models
Shareholders might have noticed that Aurubis AG (ETR:NDA) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.1% to €63.32 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €3.9b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at €3.23 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for Aurubis
After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Aurubis are now predicting revenues of €17.5b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 3.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 127% to €7.37. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €17.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of €7.56 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €82.89, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Aurubis analyst has a price target of €110 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €61.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Aurubis' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 0.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it's pretty clear that Aurubis is still expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that Aurubis' revenue is expected to perform better than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €82.89, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aurubis going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Aurubis that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
