Who is Shigeru Ishiba, Japan's leader in waiting, and what will he bring to China ties?

Shigeru Ishiba, in line to become Japan's next prime minister, is a seasoned politician who will pursue both continuity and nuance in his China policy, according to diplomatic observers.

Ishiba, a former defence chief, was elected leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on Friday. The LDP's parliamentary majority means he is expected to replace Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who announced plans to step down last month.

Analysts said Ishiba was likely to maintain Japan's strategic alliances, but warned that his aims to set up an Asian equivalent of Nato to counter China and seek a more balanced partnership with the United States could ruffle feathers in both Beijing and Washington.

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The 67-year-old won the party leadership on his fifth attempt - which he said was driven by changes in the security environment.

Ishiba has stressed the need to build a collective security framework in Asia, drawing parallels to the sense of urgency in Europe caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Following Ishiba's victory, the Chinese foreign ministry said it would not comment on the internal affairs of other countries but called for a "long-term healthy and stable development of China-Japan relations".

"We hope that Japan will foster an objective and correct understanding of China, pursue a positive and rational policy towards China ... and work with China in the same direction to promote the continuous, healthy, and stable development of China-Japan relations," ministry spokesman Lin Jian said.

Zhang Yilun, a research associate at the Washington-based Institute for China-America Studies, said that while Ishiba was likely to follow the established policy approach, his distinctive focus on pursuing a more "equal" partnership with the US set him apart from many of his rivals.

Shigeru Ishiba (right) celebrates his victory with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (centre) and other LDP members, in Tokyo on Friday. Photo: AFP alt=Shigeru Ishiba (right) celebrates his victory with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (centre) and other LDP members, in Tokyo on Friday. Photo: AFP>

"Instead of orienting Japan's policies solely around its strongest ally, Ishiba envisions Japan taking a more active role in regional security through the creation of an Asian Nato," Zhang said ahead of the LDP vote.

"This stance could complicate Japan's position should Ishiba win the election ... relations with China are likely to further deteriorate, as Beijing would vehemently oppose the idea of an Asian Nato, viewing it as a threat to its regional influence."

Meanwhile, Washington has also rejected this idea, with a top official saying that it was "too early" to talk about building an Asian Nato.

China has been cautious about US efforts to build alliances within what Washington calls the "Indo-Pacific", especially with Japan. It has labelled the US moves as attempts to create a new cold war in the Asia-Pacific through the formation of various "small cliques".

China-Japan ties have been marked by a long list of contentious issues - from wartime grievances and territorial disputes to Japan's export limits on semiconductors, its tilt towards US-led regional security groupings aimed at countering China, and the release of treated radioactive waste water from its crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant.

Walter Hatch, professor of government and Asian politics expert at Colby College, Maine, forecast a different approach to the US under Ishiba, who would push for greater freedom from US foreign policy mandates and seek to at least "loosen Washington's grip on Tokyo".

He said Washington had insisted on calling the shots in Japanese foreign policy for nearly eight decades, and Ishiba would aim to challenge this dynamic. However, this was likely to open him up to "massive resistance to change from bureaucrats on both sides of the Pacific".

According to Ryo Sahashi, an associate professor of international politics at the University of Tokyo, while Japan-US ties might face challenges under Ishiba, the long-time allies would potentially be able to manage any tensions that arise.

"Relations with the US are likely to be strained for some time to come. [Ishiba's] criticism of the Kishida administration's security policy is probably also a concern for the US," Sahashi said.

"Nevertheless, he understands the importance of the alliance with the US and is not a nationalist, so the friction may be controllable."

As for China-Japan ties, while analysts believe this could suffer more setbacks, they do not expect matters to deteriorate to crisis levels.

Beijing's expanding military activities near Japan have fuelled a strong sense of crisis in Tokyo about significant security challenges.

Bilateral tensions spiked again this week after China reprimanded Japan for sending a warship through the Taiwan Strait for the first time, becoming the latest US ally to do so citing "freedom of navigation" rights. Last month, Japan scrambled fighter jets after what it said was its first airspace incursion by Chinese military aircraft.

"Tokyo is most likely to enhance the US-Japan alliance and security partnerships with like-minded nations to deter China's maritime expansion, while it would keep opening the channel of communication with Chinese counterparts," said Ryosuke Hanada, a security expert at Sydney's Macquarie University.

Hatch noted that Ishiba's preference for engagement over confrontation with China had set him apart from other LDP leadership candidates and raised eyebrows among US policymakers and advocates of a stronger US-Japan security alliance.

However, this approach should not be mistaken as being soft on Beijing, he added.

Ishiba has visited Taiwan several times. During his last trip in August, he presented the idea of a coalition of democracies to Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te. Deterrence was crucial for regional peace, Ishiba told Lai, though he did not specifically mention Beijing.

"He is one of the strong supporters of preserving the status quo by security cooperation with Taiwan. At the same time, he cautiously delivered his idea that any new legislative measures governing relations with Taiwan are not immediately necessary," Hanada said.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US and Japan, do not recognise Taiwan as independent. But Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.

Zhang said emerging challenges made it necessary for Japan to adopt creative approaches to policymaking, particularly beyond the narrow scope of the US-China rivalry.

"For years, Japan has taken its economic cooperation with China for granted, treating it as a default without actively seeking ways to improve or diversify this relationship," he noted.

Tokyo must adopt a more creative and nuanced foreign policy strategy, Zhang said, where it needed to "engage China economically in more strategic ways, while carefully managing its broader geopolitical stance".

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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