Yahoo Finance Sticky inflation reading not likely to knock Fed off course for rate cuts
Inflation remains sticky, according to a new reading on consumer prices, but some market watchers don’t think it’s sticky enough to knock the Federal Reserve off course for a rate cut this year.
"Things are really where they should be at this point," John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer chief investment strategist, said on Yahoo Finance Live Tuesday.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed prices rose 0.4% over the previous month and 3.2% over the prior year in February, more than forecast and an acceleration from January's 0.3% monthly increase and 3.1% annual gain. This marked the largest monthly increase since September.
On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in February climbed 0.4% over the prior month and 3.8% over last year.
While both measures were higher than economist expectations, some who follow the Fed closely said a June cut could still be on the table as inflation gradually comes down from its 2022 highs.
A cut in June is "more likely" if the central bank does decide to start easing monetary policy, said Oppenheimer's Stoltzfus, who doesn't expect Tuesday's reading to result in any Fed "drama" about whether "should l go, should I stay."
Frances Donald, chief economist for Manulife, said on Yahoo Finance Live that the CPI reading was “a little bit hawkish on the surface," but that "June seems like a reasonable time to expect a first cut" if the labor market and consumer spending begin to soften.
However, rate cut expectations could be pushed out further if that doesn't happen and there is also a chance still of no rate cuts this year.
What could help the Fed gain more confidence about June, said LPL Financial chief global strategist Quincy Krosby, is if the costs of shelter start to come down faster. Shelter is a major contributor to core inflation.
The shelter index rose 5.7% on an unadjusted annual basis and 0.4% month over month, a deceleration from January's 6% annual increase and 0.6% monthly rise.
The index for rent and owners' equivalent rent (OER) rose 0.5% and 0.4% on a monthly basis, respectively. Owners' equivalent rent is the hypothetical rent a homeowner would pay for the same property. In January, the index for rent rose 0.4% while OER increased 0.6%.
Downward movement in OER "by June or July could certainly assuage Fed concerns regarding inflation remaining stubbornly higher," said Krosby of LPL Financial.
Investors are currently betting that the Fed will hold steady at its meeting next week as well as May before making its first cut in June, adjusting their expectations following cautious commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials.
Powell said last week that the Fed is "not far" from the confidence it needs to cut rates, while some of his colleagues have suggested it could happen "later this year" or during the summer.
At their meeting next week Fed officials will release updated interest rate projections as part of a so-called dot plot, and there’s a chance some could scale back the number of expected cuts this year given the stickier inflation data. They estimated three cuts for 2024 in their last dot plot released in December.
"This does leave a degree of uncertainty as to when they cut first and what they’ll do on the dot plot," said Wil Stith, bond portfolio manager for Wilmington Trust. "Will they leave it at three cuts or will they change that?"
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday he doesn’t think the Fed should begin lowering interest rates by June and should instead wait for more clarity.
"If I were them, I would wait," Dimon said at the Australian Financial Review business summit via livestream in Sydney.
The JPMorgan chief has been warning for some time now that inflation may prove to be stickier than expected and that rates could remain higher for longer.
"You can always cut it quickly and dramatically," Dimon said. "Their credibility is a little bit at stake here. I would even wait past June and let it all sort it out."
Correction: A previous version of this article misspelled Frances Donald's name. We regret the error.
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