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TOD'S S.p.A. (BIT:TOD): What Does The Future Look Like?

In December 2018, TOD'S S.p.A. (BIT:TOD) announced its earnings update. Overall, the consensus outlook from analysts appear highly confident, as earnings are expected to increase by more than twofold next year, compared with the historical 5-year average growth rate of -14%. Currently with trailing-twelve-month earnings of €47m, we can expect this to reach €106m by 2020. In this article, I've outline a few earnings growth rates to give you a sense of the market sentiment for TOD'S in the longer term. Investors wanting to learn more about other aspects of the company should research its fundamentals here.

Check out our latest analysis for TOD'S

What can we expect from TOD'S in the longer term?

Over the next three years, it seems the consensus view of the 18 analysts covering TOD is skewed towards the negative sentiment. Generally, broker analysts tend to make predictions for up to three years given the lack of visibility beyond this point. To understand the overall trajectory of TOD's earnings growth over these next fews years, I've fitted a line through these analyst earnings forecast to determine an annual growth rate from the slope.

BIT:TOD Past and Future Earnings, July 25th 2019
BIT:TOD Past and Future Earnings, July 25th 2019

From the current net income level of €47m and the final forecast of €53m by 2022, the annual rate of growth for TOD’s earnings is -1.5%. However, if we exclude extraordinary items from earnings, we see that the profits is predicted to rise over time, resulting in an EPS of €1.61 in the final year of forecast compared to the current €1.42 EPS today. Earnings decline appears to be a result of cost outpacing top line growth of 2.6% over the next few years. But by the end of 2022, analysts are expecting slower cost growth, resulting in a margin expansion, from the recent 5.0% to 5.2%.

Next Steps:

Future outlook is only one aspect when you're building an investment case for a stock. For TOD'S, I've compiled three important aspects you should further examine:

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  1. Financial Health: Does it have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.

  2. Valuation: What is TOD'S worth today? Is the stock undervalued, even when its growth outlook is factored into its intrinsic value? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether TOD'S is currently mispriced by the market.

  3. Other High-Growth Alternatives : Are there other high-growth stocks you could be holding instead of TOD'S? Explore our interactive list of stocks with large growth potential to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.