Tory election victory ‘unlikely’ – Shapps

Grant Shapps leaves Downing Street after being appointed Defence Secretary. Pic: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire

The Defence Secretary has admitted that a Conservative victory in the general election is “unlikely but possible”.

Grant Shapps said he believed the Tories can still win enough voters over to win on 4 July and form the next government, but admitted the scenario is “not the most likely outcome”.

Referring to himself as a “realist” in an interview with Times Radio, Shapps said: “I live in the real world. Let’s not pretend black is white… of course we are also fighting for every vote. No one has voted at all yet.”

The admission is the first time a Conservative front bench MP has conceded publicly that a win for the party was statistically unlikely, and represents a further in the party’s messaging, after last week the Conservatives started warning voters against the danger of Labour getting too big a majority.

Shapps was also the first minister to warn of the damage that a Labour “supermajority” could do then, in what many saw as a last-ditch attempt to shore up leaking further support to backing Reform.

Farage’s insurgent party, which launches its manifesto on Monday, has been eating away at the Tory vote from the right since the general election was announced.

Shapps added in his interview: “The risks of a blank cheque for Starmer are horrendous for this country. It doesn’t do the country any good to have that kind of sized majority for Starmer.”

The Defence Secretary’s comments came in the wake of reports that behind closed doors, cabinet ministers are admitting that the Conservatives getting 140 seats – just over half its 2019 haul – would be a success for the struggling party.

Yesterday, polling company Survation projected a Labour victory of 262 seats versus the Tories’ 72 in its latest MRP poll, which uses demographic modelling to map out the results of individual seats.

If the poll proves correct, the Conservatives will retain their status as one of the two main parties and become the official opposition.

According to the same poll, which surveyed 42,000 respondents, the Liberal Democrats were ahead in 52 seats and Reform in seven.