TREASURIES OUTLOOK-U.S. bond prices slip as focus shifts to jobs data
* Traders look to delayed U.S. Sept jobs data for direction
* Treasury bill auction rates recede after debt ceiling deal
* Overnight repo costs normalize at around 0.06 pct
* Fed buys $3.69 bln of notes due 2019 and 2020
(Repeats to additional subscribers)
By Karen Brettell and Richard Leong
NEW YORK, Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) 21 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries prices fell on
Monday, a day ahead of the release of the government's September
employment data, which was delayed by the 16-day partial federal
government shutdown.
Following a rally last week that sent benchmark yields to
their lowest levels since late July, traders refrained from
taking big bets, analysts said.
"We had a good rally with the bond market on expectations of
softer data after the shutdown and less risk of a U.S. default.
Now with the debt ceiling debate abated, there will be focus
back on the data," said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist
at Prudential Fixed Income in Newark, New Jersey.
Last Wednesday, U.S. lawmakers increased the $16.7 trillion
debt ceiling until Feb. 15 and reopened the government, turning
the market focus back to when the Fed is likely reduce the pace
of its $85 billion-a-month in bond purchases.
The government shutdown turned the spigot off for much U.S.
economic data, muddying insight into the economy's strength and
pushing back expectations on when the Fed is likely to begin to
taper until to the 2014 first quarter. The payrolls report was
originally scheduled for release on Oct. 4.
"The expectations are probably that (the jobs report) has a
better chance of being stronger because it was pre-government
shutdown," said Charles Comiskey, head of Treasuries trading at
Bank of Nova Scotia (Other OTC: BKSHF - news) in New York.
Economists polled by Reuters expect that U.S. employers
added 180,000 workers in September, up from 169,000 in August,
while the jobless rate is seen having held steady at 7.3
percent.
Market reaction to the number may be limited, however,
because of the delay in the release. The October payrolls
report, whose release has been pushed back to Nov. 8 from Nov.
1, will be of greater importance.
"I think the market is already looking at the report for
October. That will be more important in terms of what the
near-term is, and also Fed policy," Comiskey said.
On below-average volume, benchmark 10-year notes
were last down 6/32 in price to yield 2.607 percent, up 2 basis
points late on Friday. The yield rose as high as 3 percent on
Sept. 5, before the Fed surprised investors by keeping the size
of its bond purchase program unchanged.
The 30-year bond fell 18/32 in price with a
yield of 3.681 percent, up 3 basis points from late Friday.
Among other data the government has rescheduled are the
consumer price index for September, which will now be released
on Oct. 30, and the producer price index for September, now due
on Oct. 29.
Industry data on Monday showed that U.S. home resales fell
in September and prices rose at their slowest pace in five
months, a sign that higher mortgage rates may be taking some
edge off the housing recovery.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Monday that it
will likely take months to sort out the picture of the labor
market and that a tapering of bond purchases may begin later
because of the budget battle in Washington.
The Fed bought $3.69 billion in notes due 2019 and 2020 on
Monday as part of its bond-buying program.
In addition, short-term interest rates fell further in the
wake of the temporary debt deal in Washington. The cost of
borrowing overnight against Treasuries traded back at more
normal levels, at around 0.06 percent on Monday.
An influx of cash as investors returned to the market had
sent the cost of borrowing against Treasuries into negative
levels, around minus 0.10 percent, late on Friday.
Concerns about taking possession of Treasuries bills that
were at risk of a U.S. default had disrupted the repo market
before Wednesday's agreement to raise the debt ceiling, making
it more expensive to obtain the loans.
The Treasury on Monday sold a combined $65 billion worth of
three-month and six-month bills at interest rates lower than
last week's levels prior to the debt ceiling extension. Demand
at these T-bill auctions rebounded from the lows last seen in
2009.
The Treasury will sell $35 billion in one-month bills
on Tuesday, up from $20 billion last week after
the debt deal.
(Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio, W
Simon and Leslie Adler)