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The UK General Election – Odds and Predictions Update

Bob Mason

There’s never a dull moment in global politics these days.

After alleged meddling in the 2016 Presidential Election and the last UK General Election, it was Trump that got involved on Tuesday.

In spite of being asked to steer clear of any chatter on the UK Election, the U.S President had ideas of his own. Not only did the U.S President state that he had no interest in the UK’s NHS, but he also delivered strong support for current PM Boris.

There was no Johnson – Trump press conference to woo the media, leaving Trump to do the talking.

Interestingly Trump’s lack of interest in the NHS comes in spite of leaked minutes suggesting quite the opposite.

While supporting the UK PM, Trump also stated that he could work with anyone occupying No 10.

Looking at the latest odds and predictions, Johnson looks to have recovered from a late dip in support.

The Opinion Polls

YouGov has yet to release its opinion poll tracker from the weekend.

From elsewhere, however, there was a pickup in support for the Tories, following the narrowing to a single-digit lead.

Last Sunday, YouGov had released its opinion poll tracker, covering polls between 28th and 29th November.

According to the last poll tracker,

  • The Tories saw their share of the vote hold steady at 43%. While up from 42% back on 22nd November, the share had fallen from a high 45% on 15th

  • For the Opposition Party, the share of the vote increased from 32% on 26th November to 34% on 29th

  • The pickup in support for Labour saw the Tory party lead narrow to single digits for the first time in quite some time. The Tories had enjoyed a double-digit lead since calling a General Election.

  • There was no improvement for the Lib Dems, which saw their share of the vote hold steady at 13%. That’s down from a 16% share back on 22nd

The tracker will need to reflect a pickup in support to provide support to the Pound going into the final stretch. A double-digit lead would be a minimum…

The Odds

The latest bookmakers’ odds saw some minor changes mid-week.

According to Oddschecker, the odds for the Tories to win with an overall majority moved back from ‘1/2 to 2/5. The odds of the Tories winning the most seats continued to hold steady at 1/20 after moving from 1/16 last week. The odds had moved from 1/14 to 1/16 ahead of the weekend of 23rd November.

For the opposition party, the odds of winning the most seats widened from 14/1 to 16/1. The odds of an overall Labour majority, however, held steady at 25/1 after narrowing from 28/1 to 25/1.

With the Lib Dems continuing to lack support, the odds of a hung parliament widened from 2/1 to 5/2, reversing a narrowing from 5/2 to 2/1 at the start of the week.

Over the weekend of 23rd November, Oddschecker had the odds of a hung parliament stand at 11/5.

UK bookmakers had the odds of a hung parliament at 5/4 in the 1st week of November.

The Predictions

The opinion polls and the bookmakers continue to have the Tories as the likely victors in next Thursday’s election.

Electoral Calculus, however, has continued to reflect an increase in support for the Labour Party, raising uncertainty.

According to the latest Electoral Calculus prediction, the Tories are expected to win 339 seats, giving a majority of 28 seats.

While up from a recent low of a 12 seat majority, this was down from 34 seats from earlier in the week.

It’s still not great reading for the Opposition Party, however, with Electoral Calculus predicting Labour to win 229 seats. This is well above 208 seats at the end of November, but still not enough to spook the markets and the Pound.

With one week remaining, however, any further fall in the majority and things could get choppy once more.

The predictions were based on opinion polls from between 26th November and 3rd December.

The Pound

After moving back through to $1.30 levels earlier in the week, the Pound is sitting at $1.31 levels. That’s the 1st time since May.

The upside comes in spite of significant uncertainty over next week’s outcome. If things go the wrong way, the Pound is set up for a tumble.

Expect the Pound to respond to the next YouGov opinion poll tracker results… For the markets, they’ve set out the stall and will now need to sit back for the first of the vote counts to trickle through late on Thursday of next week…

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.21% to $1.31309.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire