What's Next for Greece? 10 Questions for WSJ's Simon Nixon

The citizens of Greece have voted to reject an offer from their European creditors, and the crisis, which has been building for the last five years, appears to be coming to a head. What's next for Greece politically and socially? What would a Grexit look like? Will there be repercussions throughout the world? Wall Street Journal readers had lots of questions for Chief European Commentator Simon Nixon in a Facebook question and answer session.

Here are some of the questions and answers from our Facebook conversation.

Some of the questions and answers have been lightly edited.

Question from Brian Ward: Was "Grexit" always part of Syriza's game plan?

Answer from Simon Nixon: Yes, I think it was - if not for Mr. Tsipras at first, then at least for a hard core of his party who he wasn't prepared to face down. If it wasn't Syriza's plan then it's behavior over the past five months is very difficult to explain. Certainly, if it was his plan, it is hard to think of anything Syriza might have done differently.

Question from Jesselyn Toufar: If Greece leaves the euro, what are we likely to see happen in the first 100 days?

Answer: I expect the situation to get very ugly. Economic activity has already slowed dramatically and will most likely collapse. There would be a social collapse too as the government tried to put in place new arrangements to pay pensions and salaries and reopen the banks. Cut off from international markets, the country would struggle to import food and medicines. Most officials inside and outside Greece expect there would be a humanitarian crisis, and some also worry about the possibility of civil disorder.

Question from Ricardo Praça: Do you think there is any way of solving this Greek crisis other than another debt pardon and a big reforms program? Isn't Greece too far away from being sustainable?

Answer: Syriza's brinkmanship over the last five months has done enormous damage to the Greek economy. I suspect it will take years to recover from this experience. That inevitably means that the bill for rescuing Greece has now gone through the roof, as the IMF made clear in its debt sustainability analysis report issued last month. But debt relief is only part of the answer. Much more important is that Greece agrees to make reforms which might allow its economy to grow again. So far there is no sign of that.

Question from Danny Davila: In your opinion, what are the chances that the EU, ECB and Greek Creditors capitulate and agree to writing down a sizable portion of the debt and agree to another bailout?

Answer: I think the issue of the debt is a distraction. Last year, Greece was able to borrow in the bond markets even though its debt levels were very high. Right now, I doubt it could borrow even if its debt were cut in half. Greece's current funding costs are very low. What the market worries about is whether Greece has a long-term plan to reform its economy so that it can grow again. Unfortunately, Syriza has shown no interest in reforms and most of its proposals involve running up even bigger deficits. That said, if Syriza did show it was serious about reform, I'm sure the eurozone would agree to cut its debt.

Question from Anna Chen: Can you explain the implications of former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis stepping down and how that escalated? Also, how will the new finance minister differ in his approach to negotiations?

Answer: Mr. Varoufakis had managed to alienate pretty much everyone in the eurozone who tried to negotiate with him. He had a habit of delivering very long lectures on economics but never seemed to bring any proposals. The final straw was when he last week called his fellow eurozone finance ministers terrorists. The new finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos is regarded as more pragmatic, but he's also an ideological Marxist so it's hard to see how his appointment will help resolve the big issues of substance.

Question from Brian Glueck: The new Finance minister was described by the Financial Times as a "Marxist." How do you think he will differ in strategy in negotiations to Varoufakis? How can you be Marxist, yet seen as "practical" in being able to make concessions that hurt public welfare like pension cuts or raising the retirement age?

Answer: I suspect by "practical" they simply mean he has better manners. Former colleagues of both men say that Mr. Tsakalotos is in fact a considerably more hardline leftist than Mr. Varoufakis. If he's more willing to compromise, then it would only be because he's prepared to postpone the revolution for a bit longer.

Question from Bernard Mulholland: Could Greece adopt Sterling (or indeed the Russian ruble) to create another alternative currency bloc within the EU?

Answer: It could adopt any currency it wants but it wouldn't have access to the central bank's facilities and nor could it print the currency so it wouldn't get any of the benefits of leaving the eurozone. On the other hand, if it does exit, I would expect the euro to continue to be the main currency used in Greece, much as it the neighboring FYR Macedonia.

Question from Ioannis Hapsis: Can Greece introduce Dual Currency? For example, Drahmas plus Euro, and would it help in the long run?

Answer: I would expect that if and when Greece does start to introduce drachma, the euro will continue to be the main unit of exchange just as the dollar is used in parts of South America. No one is going to place much faith in a currency backed by the promises of the current Greek government!

Question from Adi Mulaj: What do you think about Massimo D'Alema's statement saying that that money is going only to big creditors not to Greeks? If there is an exit from EU do you think that the loan will be payed using its properties (islands, land etc)?

Answer: I think Massimo D'Alema is wrong. In the 2012 bailout, a third of the money went to recapitalize the banking system which suffered huge losses from the write-down of Greek government bonds. Another 40-odd percent was used to replace expensive loans with very long-term low-interest loans. No one wanted to draw attention to it as the time for fear of upsetting taxpayers elsewhere in the eurozone, but the reality is that Greece received massive debt relief, including from the rest of the eurozone.

Question from Nikolas Kontoleon: Per latest reports, President Obama had a call with Prime Minister Tsipras. The US has appeared to be a proponent of some sort of debt restructuring for Greece. Do you see any possible "stronger" statements or even actions from the US towards that direction?

Answer: The US has largely played a background role throughout this crisis, reflecting the fact that it doesn't have any skin in the game (other than via the IMF). Clearly the US government is worried, both about the geopolitical implications of Grexit and theeconomic fallout (abuot which it is more pessimistic than the Europeans). But the US faces the same problem that the Europeans have faced: it's hard to negotiate with a government that doesn't want to reform.

You can follow Simon on Twitter @simon_nixon

-Complied by Erin Brown