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Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX)

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1.5890-0.0150 (-0.94%)
As of 2:59PM EST. Market open.
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  • t
    thetrader
    If the big guy had appointed Hunter-you would have seen yields really crash!
  • t
    thetrader
    When the yield was 1.68 on Wednesday= you all said we were crazy for buying huge quantities there / and do you know what we said??
  • A
    Anonymous
    Sleepy’s new weapon of controlling inflation COVIS scares! Totalitarian
  • s
    stockparty
    Well the market got what it wanted--4 more years of Powell, yet no follow through--can't break 1.64--shorts blinked. Something more is going on and big bond money can sense it.
  • t
    thetrader
    Flash Announcement: Hunter told his chairman the family can make mo money selling his blow paintings to foreign countries!
  • M
    Michael
    Inflation here to stay folks. Too much money, stimulus, debt forgiveness, stock buybacks, etc; and labor shortage port mania, etc. We’ve entered into an upswing cycle where employers need to increase wages to keep them. It’s like the minimum wage is $20/hr. Not coming back from this.
  • L
    Luke
    There's no safe haven in fiat... Fiat backed lending yields below inflation gains with considerable political risk, and assets are precarious at the moment.
  • A
    Andy
    That is impressive to see Gold over $1,850 per oz. It was only $1,100 per oz. last year.
    But gold is not really going up. The value of cash is going down. US dollar has been debased for years now and it is getting worse. Everything is surging relative to the dollar. The cost of oil is up by 250%. The cost of insurance is up more than 30%. The cost of fertilizer is up by 40%. The cost of beef is up by 45%. The cost of labor is rising significantly. Those cost of rent is rising rapidly. The cost of shipping is up by more than 100%. The CPI is up by 6.2% (the highest in 30 years) and the producer price index PPI is up by 8.6% (also the highest in 30 years), and these are even from the numbers that the government skews to the low side.
    Inflation indexes are rising 300% faster than the GDP. And most of the GDP growth will be found to be in err as orders are cancelled and the whole over-hyped house of cards collapses. So inflation is way beyond the GDP growth.
    As the inflation numbers get digested, people will realize that prices are rising and will speed to buy big-ticket items prior to the next price increase. They don't want to pay 30% more next month for what they could buy today. The value of the dollar is plummeting. Once the government admits they were downplaying things and that the inflation of Feb 2021 was not transitory, people will realize they should buy sooner, and this will drive up the inflation rate. It is a vicious circle. The government waited 9 months too long, if they start to raise rates now, people will borrow while interest rates are still ridiculously low. This will start to drive up the inflation the government has been denying. However, there is already way too much debt.
    If corporate tax rates are increased, this will cause further inflation, as companies will need to increase prices quickly in order to maintain margins. In the best case, stock markets may drop by 40%. The Federal funds rate should be raised 5% tomorrow, otherwise, this will be an even longer and more painful process. If they allow the inflation to go on longer, stocks will drop by 70%.
  • L
    Luke
    1.56%, so you're losing 4.64% (6.2% CPI inflation) per year based upon CPI, and 14.44% (16% inflation) based upon the higher range of independent inflation estimates. That's rough, what that means is the Federal Reserve is actually losing money in real terms on all the trillions of positions they hold. The perfect example of when the government gets involved, they ruin everything.
  • t
    thetrader
    Hunter for Chairman of The Federal Reserve is a no-brainer for the big guy! He has made more deals with Che and other foreign leaders than any other nominee!
  • S
    Simple Joe
    Crypto is the future. The Fed is unable to control it and they will try to outlaw its use.
    LETS. GO. BRANDON.
  • t
    thetrader
    When the big guy names his boy Hunter as the new Federal Reserve Chairman how will the markets react? Serious replies only please!
  • t
    thetrader
    Hunter knows how to wheel and deal and is the smartest one in his family-he should be the new Federal Reserve Chairman-pants down!!
  • A
    Andy
    Wow, seeing 10 year bond yield up again by 5.8%, truly shows people don't want to buy more bonds with these ridiculously low interest return. And why should that... If inflation is already surging to 6.2% (according to the CPI), it is crazy to put money into bonds that are paying less than 7% interest. (And the PPI is already up by 8.6% year over year - and going higher). Bond interest rates are definitely on their way up. And the value of existing bonds and stocks are about to crash, as people who recently bought stocks and bonds are realizing they were hoodwinked. If absolute interest rates go up by 1%, bond values will come down by 5%, and stock values will come down by 10%. If interest rates go up by a more reasonable 5%, then stocks will likely drop by 50%. Be careful in these overvalued bonds and equities.
  • J
    John
    CPI coming in very hot at 0.9% in October, 6.2% on annual basis. A sane reaction would be for yields to spike. This inflation is not transitory as it is 1. accelerating and 2. spreading to new sectors (it is no longer sectors linked to re-opening).
  • J
    John
    Fed has only indirect control over the long end of the yield curve. 10Y nominal yield HAS to rise, as the market keeps realizing inflation is NOT transitory. Nominal = real + inflation. Real yields are at record lows. And inflation will keep rising. Nominal has to rise. As nominal rises, risk-on assets WILL be hurt. It has been an incredible run for long-duration assets (like techs and cryptos). They will be the first to feel the pain of higher interest rates. And they have PLENTY of space to fall down.
  • t
    thetrader
    The big guy will be announcing his boy Hunter will be the new Federal Reserve Chairman shortly--look for negative rates across the board
  • t
    thetrader
    With all his deals with China and Russia and many other countries--Hunter could do a lot !!
  • J
    John
    Here is what I don?t understand: how can bond buyers accept to lose 3.5% per year (5% inflation - 1.5% nominal), compounded for 10Y. Are 10Y yields kept artificially down by Fed?s purchases? No, I don?t think the Fed is buying long-term bonds (only short term). Are buyers forecasting much lower inflation? Well, even if they believe the Fed is right, it would take at least a year for inflation to go back to the target 2%, and even then, real interest rates would still be negative! Negative real interest rates make no sense whatsoever from an investing POV. It is like locking in a mathematically certain loss. The only alternative is that buyers are actually forced to buy this #$%$ But then why still call it a free market... I am afraid that we are subtly and quietly shifting towards a planned, state-controlled and big corps-controlled economy. This is no longer capitalism. The rules have changed. Fundamentals have been destroyed and the market is no longer properly functioning at allocating capital efficiently. I buy gold because if I stay in cash I will be taxed at the inflation rate (I don?t even get the nominal, as interest rates in my current account are basically zero). I hope people open their eyes and gold protects me against this devious monetary debasement, but I am not so hopeful.
  • G
    Gassalasca
    Interest rates should be over 100% to reflect the quality and risk of the underlying currency and securities.