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Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (0K6R.L)

LSE - LSE Delayed price. Currency in USD
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91.67-11.18 (-10.87%)
As of 5:55PM BST. Market open.
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  • r
    robertjan
    buy out on the horizon?

    no real news that has driven the PPS up 8 point in 2 trading days
  • M
    Matthew
    Two good days of share price increase before earnings…could we be looking at an earnings beat and better guidance?
  • a
    andy
    This is not priced in considering boxed warning risks. we received a clean label. no mention of hepatotoxicity or osteoporosis. By EOD this should move up considerably. elagolix is a 5b+ multi blockbuster with ENDO doing over 2b sales. elagolix is also being explored in UF which could put total peak sales above 5B. Also, ABBVIE has been very active in educating physicians& patients about ENDO. Also many celebrities(halsey, whoopi, tia, julianne hough, dolly etc) have come forth to speak about their endometriosis suffering. its not surprising that $ABBV has invested a significant amount of time & $ on awareness as ENDO & UF is a large market opportunity. going forward, elagolix will replace a huge chunk of humira's sales.. humira sales force are now moving toward marketing elagolix.. neurocrine could easily collect billions in annual CF.
  • r
    robert
    This is by far one of my fav stocks. For a biotech it just seems so solid. Even when it dips I stay calm & usually buy more. Just has good mojo.
  • c
    clayton christensen
    Remember when KG said "We want to grow this company to into one of the, if not largest neuroscience companies in the world". This WILL indeed HAPPEN. We will be as large as biogen in 5-10 years. If you project the cash flows of ingrezza&elagolix, we'll be looking at some very large inflows of cash which will be used to license/acquire more compounds. we have 800m cash sitting on sidelines and soon over 1b+ in cash. If we are not acquired(hopefully not), we'll eventually trade at a 50b+ mcap and will be the one acquiring other companies. $200.00 here we come !
  • r
    robert
    Love it
  • A
    Andy
    nbix just announced preliminary results on ingrezza sales. revenue for the 4th qt comes in at $94M(64m ingrezza) which beats consensus by 18M or nearly a 40% beat. This would put neurocrine in profitable range. Also, despite, austedo launch, 80mg transition, and free 5 week ingrezza through inbrace program, management was still able to deliver another monster qt. with these results, i am more confident, that Ingrezza will become a multi blockbuster product. the next best CNS product since zyprexa, abilify, seroquel.
  • a
    andy
    so KG just stated that all double sales from 40mg has fully transition to 80mg in the 4th qt. this is important, since price per patient were expected to drop roughly 30% but yet ingrezza sales grew 42.2% or a 78.5% growth in scripts(9100 vs 5100). also, David(EX-CFO) expected the 40mg to 80mg transition to fully integrate through a few quarters and since it happened all throughout the 4th QT, it makes the ER numbers look even better than they are now!
  • A
    Andy
    Ingrezza's expansion into other movement disorders(2mm+), TS, HD, PDD, schizophrenia is larger than both $VRTX's CF market and $ALXN's Soliris. If we consider TS/TD an OD, then in comparison to other OD companies(BMRN, VRTX, ALXN), neurocrine would potentially trade at a 40-50B mcap or at least a 450-550 PPS.

    In 2015, BMRN had a peak mcap of 23B and was doing 800m sales annually. Neurocrine is expected to reach those sales NEXT year...

    Soliris sales is estimated to peak at 5B.. Despite slowing growth, competition, OMS-721, and a 9B $GEVA's acquisition flop, it once traded at a 40B valuation.. In perspective, that is a 450 PPS for neurocrine..

    ALXN's 5 year chart from 2010-2015, is a conservative portrayal of how neurocrine will perform going forward(from 4b to 40B).. the difference is, neurocrine WON'T poorly execute an acquisition($GEVA)... WON'T be SOLELY dependent on one product(soliris) vs elagolix&ingrezza.. The potential sales in elagolix+ingrezza is twice as large as soliris market. its just a matter of time that we will trade over a $500 PPS. give it 5 years.
  • K
    Kenten Yuke
    What is with the AH appreciation today?
  • D
    D
    Also, does anyone know if this type of preliminary earnings report is normal? I have yet to see something like this happen, so can anyone with more experience let me know why a company would do this, instead of waiting the usual ~ 1 month.
  • M
    Matthew
    No real reaction to the EPS miss; which was widely expected. I guess it’s all in the CC.
  • A
    Andy
    neurocrine's future is extremely bright. they will report a profitable quarter in the next ER which will add to its growing 840M+ cash position. KG in the CC, has said they're actively searching for new clinical compounds for BD. i am excited to see their creativity in M&A. also, they mentioned that they will have at LEAST 1 IND for 2018. this is hinting to possibly more than 2 IND's for 2018-19. also KG's closing remarks hinted that ingrezza& elagolix may see ADDITIONAL indications beyond TS &UF..the color is starting to show for two 5b+ PS products. i'm also excited for CAH results, which will readout in the 3rd qt. NBI-74788 is a wonderful compound, and has a beautiful MOA(CRF antagonist) that could treat a wide range of disorders/diseases: MDD, anxiety, inflammation, psoriasis, IBD, dermatitis, combo therapy for tumors, etc. NBI-74788 will have CAH as first of many indications and if successful could easily be their next blockbuster. this won’t be a 4 compound, 6 indication company for long. i'd say hc wainwright's PT increase to $162 is still too low. 200+ here we come.
  • A
    Andy
    when asked about m&a in conference, KG says "We want to grow this company to into one of the, if not largest neuroscience companies in the world". This WILL indeed HAPPEN. We will be as large as biogen in 5-10 years. If you project the cash flows of ingrezza&elagolix, we'll be looking at some very large inflows of cash which will be used to license/acquire more compounds. we have 800m cash sitting on sidelines and soon over 1b+ in cash. If we are not acquired(hopefully not), we'll eventually trade at a 50b+ mcap and will be the one acquiring other companies.
  • A
    Andy
    very small reaction to positive UF p3 results... the market size for elagolix in UF is VAST.. more than 25% of woman are affected with UF.. and 10% of women affected with ENDO.. elagolix will easily be SOC and do 5b+ in sales in indications UF&ENDO.
  • j
    jack
    Abbv should consider buyout at $190.00. About $18 billion.Feedback greatly appreciated.
  • A
    Andy
    For Q1, Ingrezza sales reported were 71.1M, which is a 7.3M beat to consensus. Another solid QT by neurocrine's management. TRx were 12,500 vs 9100 a quarter earlier. Despite the hurdles i mentioned in the last post(PRE- ER), NBIX management unbelievably still managed to grow very robust TRx. Base on the current TRx numbers(12,500), we can assume there are roughly 4000-4500 patients on ingrezza. Keep on mind this patient number was achieved in 11 months of launch! Between austedo& ingrezza, out of the 500k-600k TD patients, the estimated penetration rate for both comes to roughly 60-90k patients or 30-45k ea. This implies a peak sales of 2.25B to 3.375B for TD ONLY. At the current trajectory of growth, we are well ahead of the curve to see roughly 30k patients by 2023 or 2.25B(30k*75k). If given time, label expansions, ROW, Ingrezza will eventually be on the list of top multi blockbuster meds of all time.

    Also, management has moved forward with T-FORCE platinum which FURTHERS strengthen’s their confidence in the TS program. We can expect an SNDA FDA meeting as early as 1H of 2019. TS is expected to do another 2.5B in sales on top of TD. I’d say TS is barely priced into current share price. If it was, we should be easily be trading above a 200+ PPS.
  • D
    D
    Although Abbvie never released an official PDUFA date, I think it's safe to assume that it will be by the end of July. They announce 6 month priority review October 27th, which would bring the initial PDUFA to April 27th. With the 3 month extension, we are left at a PDUFA date of no later than July 27th.

    In a recent conference, CEO Kevin Gorman noted that there is no mention of anything liver related (the reason for the extended review) in the NEJM article analysing the data. I think this is a pretty safe bet to approval in 3 weeks.
  • N
    Nassius
    Wow, Mr. Market has just increased pre-P2 trial value of Luvadaxistat to $1.2B. If this is accurate the rest of NBIX's pipeline must be worth hundreds of billions!
    :)
  • r
    robert
    From a TA standpoint, looks like a pretty good entry point to add some shares. I’ve said it before....approved drug, solid revenue stream, adequate COH, big biotech partnership & my fav intangible...west coast based. What’s not to like? Stay long my friends.