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The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)
NYSE - Nasdaq Real-time price. Currency in USD
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Added GEO to my portfolio…chart looks very good, heavenly shorted and bad news regarding the current administration…perfect entry point …
I still am trying to figure how a for profit prison that helps rehabilitate and help people be better is bad? I like this stock. I like what they do and I will add each paycheck too it. keep shorting boys.
tomorrow and next week is very important for GEO. I think it will determine if it goes up for two digits or stay one digit by the end of year.
New shareholder thoughts. I have recently bought GEO after reading an article that featured what Michael Burry's stock picks. He is a long term holder as I am, he is brilliant as I am not. After doing further research and seeing what is going on in the US I think this is a no brainer, again for the long term. I live in the San Francisco Bay Area, it like other parts of the country, IMHO, people are getting fed up with the lawlessness that is rampant throughout the US. CVS and Walgreens stores are closing and I have even heard that Costco is contemplating closing their SF store. Crime and murder levels are way up throughout the country. We have swung way to far to the Left and I think over the next 2 to 3 years we will swing way to the Right when it comes to Law Enforcement.
In regards to the Debt Ceiling I have no worries, they eventually work it out or, as somebody already mentioned, all that matters is Gold and bullets if that happens, I will add food also.
I'm in the dark red, but just bought more at the last minute. LFG.
Good to see a strong support at the 50-day line today. The golden cross soon.
I'f you pay attention to max pain, we are there and I don't see much changing until next week. I'm using the opportunity to add to my position.
Yo guys, let me get your thoughts here. Right now the issue of raising the government debt ceiling is going on and GOP is holding out. If for some reason the debt ceiling isn't raised, the government would default, correct? So being that we rely on the government as our single major source of income. If they default, what happens to us? Is there some kind of protection we have to guarantee funds or are we SOL?
Looking forward to your reply.
Been holding since the 5's. Sold today. good luck longs.
bid tech can save the private prison industrial complex we need more laws thought crimes are on the rise
There is a new Sep 4, 2021 article on $eeking @alpha entitled
GEO Group: The Market Has Mispriced The Stock, Grossly Undervalued
I cannot post the whole thing as it is too long and our hosts here will almost certainly delete it. You certainly can easily find it on a search. The author is an investor in GEO so, yes, they are biased. Here are some highlights (yes, they were cherry-picked by me):
GEO Group (GEO) is a deeply mispriced provider of privately-owned prisons, falling from a price of $30+ in early 2017 to the current price of $7.90 per share at the time of writing. GEO has fallen primarily as a result of concerns about legislation regarding private prisons, a canceled dividend, the likely shift away from a REIT structure, and high levels of debt. These overblown concerns have created an opportunity to buy $1 for 50 cents.
Present Value of Bull Case
Below is the same model but with an assumed growth rate over the next 5 years of 4% to reflect a growing international business, increased need for border detention centers, and a reduced debt position. We also assumed a terminal growth rate of 2%, the expected growth of the economy, an FCF margin of 12.6%, the TTM figure, and a discount rate of 10% to factor in the limited but still present risk of legislation.
As you can see, we arrive at an intrinsic value per share of $31.60, nearly 400% of the current share price. The value is close to the 2017 high of over $34 per share.
Applying a 25% margin of safety, we get a price target of $23.70. And using a target return of 100%, we arrive at a buy price of anything $11.85 and below.
Present Value of Bear Case
Below is a DCF calculation using the worst reasonable outcome for GEO considering the situation that the company is in. The figures used are the projected 2021 revenue of $2.3 billion, the TTM FCF of $290 million, a discount rate of 12% reflecting extreme uncertainty (nearly triple their WACC), an FCF margin of 6% (half of the TTM figure), and a negative 2% current and terminal growth rate.
The assumptions that we made in this model are ridiculously pessimistic, and yet we still arrived at an intrinsic value per share of $15, an upside of 89.6% from the current levels. This worst-case scenario model acts as a demonstration of the sheer absurdity of the current price levels.
GEO has fallen far below fair value for reasons including their canceled dividend, a potential shift away from a REIT structure, their high debt relative to market cap, and concerns regarding legislation. We believe GEO's business can and will survive, despite all the threats listed above. Eventually, the share price will converge to the stock's fair value. We are long GEO with 2023 calls and hold a very bullish view on the stock.
After reading all this hype I bought $100,000 shares and now I am rich
Brian can you push down harder instead of dripping down. I want to buy more below 7
Once we report another in-line or slight bit quarter, thats a turning point and we aint going back to sub-7, and 10 by xmas
I have seen this seven consecutive red candles 4 months ago when my average was $6. 2 weeks later from then, I sold most of my position at $10.
Happy buying more today sub 7.50, still view GEO as a buy under 12. The USMS contract news might cut both ways soon….
I feel like something big is coming Lol. Idk. Just feel like it will hit fast and you better be onboard. Something will draw everyone to us here and we will sit back while the frenzy takes place..
On an unrelated note - unfortunately for the depe st8, there are still far too many Americans willing to fight like hell for our liberty. Together we win
it took shorts close to 2mil shares just to move a few cents down. I bet they wanted it to contain below 7 for the options to expire worthless
Am I dreaming or did M Fool actually write a positive article about GEO? Nope I'm awake; guess hell must of frozen over. Nope it's still warm in D.C.
Ever since the terrible jobs report from a week & half ago, the market has been taking a dump and GEO hasn't been immune from it, at least so far. This morning the market futures are up, but can it hold up thru market close; last week it couldn't and would sell off by end of day. Often Sep. & Oct. can be tough months, so if GEO gets yanked down with the overall markets, I see it as another buying opportunity to add to my position as it's still a tremendous value play with a heavy demand for their business from all the soaring crime, open borders and now the Afghan refugees brought in.
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