Retirees in their late 60s/early 70s remember inflation. For most investors, this is their first experience w/real inflation (note the oxymoron). If this is anything like 1973-1974 we are one-third of the way through he broad market pullback. IMO is won't be that bad. Think we are maybe half-way through the pullback--top of the fifth inning. VIX needs to get above 50. Crypto, tech and meme still not washed out. Retail still buying the dips. All that has to end.
R
S&P 500 earnings estimates probably need to be reduced 10% and the P/E needs to be in the 12-13 range given expected future interest rates and cost inflation. The American dream of the 50s and 60s will be reconfigured to one where you hope you do not have to work until 80. Retirement portfolios are being shredded, and yet ere is a lot of complacency. That is the unintended consequence of the past two years of immense COVID fiscal stimulus (and even the 2008-2009 bailout of the subprime Financial Crisis)---to wit: no need to worry: the government will always just give me money, provide tax credits, stimulus payments, loan forgiveness, reduced IRS tax settlements, tax the rich more and re-distribute it to me. Lots of people are in for a wake-up call over the next 5-10 years.
L
Valuation matters in this market. GS is trading at a 5 PE ratio. Keep buying.
R
GS still ok relative to tech. Amazing market. Breath-taking. Stocks already down 80% form their 52-week highs and they crush them another 5% 15% and 30% AH---RBLX, COIN, U. Yesterday UPST. These are not outliers, and they are not inconsequential nothing little companies. They are indicative of what happens in a bear market underneath the broad indices when you miss revenues or earnings or give reduced guidance. Some tech investors are almost wiped out. Now the tough decision: do you try and save the last 10-20% down from here? The market has transitioned from complacency to resignation but is only in the early stages of fear. Some are dumping AH knowing a margin call is otherwise likely coming tomorrow. One can have a shopping list but probably need to consider DCA to avoid losing an arm or leg to a falling knife. Some pretty big hits to bond folks as well this year. Gotta wonder who is on the wrong side of tech or bonds in a big way (other than Ms. Wood). We have not heard of a Long Term Capital yet or a major hedge fund dislocation---a little surprising but it is still early. VIX only at 33. In an ideal situation it would be early November and the VIX would be knocking on the door of 50 and everyone would look to jump on the market 15%-20% lower from here. That's too easy because everyone is waiting for that.
R
GS is bad enough, but the biggest investment manager in the world (BLK) has been just about cut in half and is yielding almost the equivalent of some utilities. And we are maybe half way through the market decline.
I
I can have unlimited vacation days too, here, where I work. I take too many of them though, and I get fired.
T
My post from yesterday proves I know what I am talking about. You bought anyway yesterday and now you lose: "All the kings 🤴 horses 🐎 and all of his men will not be able to put humpty dumpty together again.. all the financials who were pumped to ridiculous levels by FR money and credit creation starting in 2008 will return to the walking dead zombies they were... Without the FR, you are toast ! This is the start of a decade or more bear 🐻 market that will cause most investors to lose most of their fabulous, once in a lifetime FR induced gains because they ignored reality and cold hard facts and went against the FR..
J
Imo this market seems pretty manipulated. Hedge funds start selling after the market has already been decimated??? Short sellers shorting stocks because they can?? We have inflation thanks to the Fed and yet our government is spending billions on weapons for Ukraine??? Already what is it? Something like 33 billion and asking for more??? Meanwhile in this country we have open borders; higher insurance costs; higher taxes; crime increasing tenfold, businesses hurt from Covid Lockdowns and still struggling to recover?? And if you want to talk about inflation with gas prices and food prices why would this administration decide to allow our stock markets to now be decimated? Individual investors and retirement accounts now decimated by the nonsense that the powers that be on Wall Street create? How can anyone not be totally disgusted with what is going on in this country. How do we have supply chain issues when we are able to ship billions of dollars of military equipment and ammunition in record speed to help fight a war in Ukraine? The CEO of Goldman Sachs needs to speak up and speak out and stop this decimation of the share price!!! If every CEO would come out and speak up Wall Street croonies imo would not be allowed to get away with what is going on with this sell off!
R
Generally speaking in the market today, in many cases Bids are being dropped as soon as you put in a sell order at the then-current bid. Guess they call that "fast market conditions"
W
Given the market set up, tomorrow's job numbers, however you cut, will be good news
If good, it shows that the economy not going to be in recession, good
If bad, which means yields will go down, good, market could up 500 points
S
Another day in Bidens market. LETS MAKE IT AFFORDABLE FOR EVERYONE.
R
All rallies are sold. This Friday could be difficult as traders likely want to be out ahead of the weekend during a war. But this weekend is even more uncertain given Monday is May 9, a day that looms large and possibly dramatic for Putin and the Russian WWII anniversary. I suspect some are getting an early start to getting flat or short ahead of even Friday---in other words, today.
M
Warren Buffett said banks make more money in this environment! Especially investment banks! Who is the cheapest investment bank now? GS!!!
V
According to the graham formula this stock is worth 624 usd. I'm a value investor and I was very surprised when I crunched the numbers. 51 percent undervalued.
R
What a brutal reversal, absolutely brutal. On the positive side you are actually getting a little bit of fear creeping into the market as complacency is slowly waning. Still have a ways to go. We have maybe gone from the third inning to the fourth, JMO.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ICE?p=ICE
https://casetext.com/case/spear-leeds
https://www.proquest.com/docview/198337569
https://www.goldmansachs.com/media-relations/press-releases/archived/2000/2000-09-11.html
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/8023/goldman-sachs-in-profitable-deal-to-reach-retail-investors
https://money.cnn.com/2001/11/29/deals/archipelago/
https://www.thestreet.com/opinion/archipelago-redibook-finalize-merger-pact-10013561
https://sec.report/Document/0001047469-04-006296/
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/archipelago-holdings-to-acquire-pacific-exchange
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nyse-to-buy-archipelago-go-public
https://www.analysisgroup.com/Insights/cases/nyse-merger/
https://www.forbes.com/2006/02/28/nyse-archipelago-0228markets05.html?sh=4c269b8156ca
https://www.industryweek.com/finance/software-systems/article/21933569/nyse-buys-euronext
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20121220005521/en/IntercontinentalExchange-to-Acquire-NYSE-Euronext-For-33.12-Per-Share-in-Stock-and-Cash-Creating-Premier-Global-Market-Operator
https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/05/27/intercontinentalexchange-announces-plans-to-float-euronext/
https://www.goldmansachs.com/media-relations/press-releases/archived/2013/gs-completes-sale-of-stake-in-redi.html
https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/press-releases/2016/september/thomson-reuters-strengthens-buy-side-trading-capabilities-with-redi-acquisition.html
https://tracxn.com/d/acquisitions/acquisitionsbyEuronext
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EEFT?p=EEFT
https://www.euronetworldwide.com
https://www.euronext.com/en
https://www.nyce.net
https://www.nyse.com/index
https://www.nyseg.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NYCE
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ICE?p=ICE
https://www.ice.com/index
https://www.ice.gov
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Soros
https://rediformfcu.com/about
https://www.redburn.com
https://www.federalbarcouncil.org/publications/second-circuit-redbook/
https://www.redbookmag.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redbook
http://www.redbookresearch.com/8702.html
http://www.redbookresearch.com
https://www.gao.gov/legal/appropriations-law/red-book
https://4redi.com
https://money.rediff.com/index.html
https://www.rediff.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RediATM
https://www.redibank.com
https://www.redbanktn.gov
https://www.redbanknj.org
https://www.reddit.com
https://www.redwoodtrust.com/what-we-do/
https://www.redmond.gov
https://www.redmondoregon.gov
https://redhotchilipeppers.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Hot_Chili_Peppers
https://www.reddiwip.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddi-Wip
https://www.redfcu.org/helpful-links/about-us/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redstone_Federal_Credit_Union
https://www.cmegroup.com
https://cmefcu.org
https://www.chinabeigebook.com
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beige-book-default.htm
https://www.facebook.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matchbook_FX
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloomberg_Tradebook
https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/solution/tradebook/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MORN?p=MORN
https://pitchbook.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PitchBook_Data
https://pitchbook.com/media/press-releases/morningstar-to-acquire-pitchbook-data
https://www.morningstar.com/authors/2136/pitchbook
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collusion
Best Regards
Richard Rosado
https://www.goldmansachs.com/investor-relations/financials/archived/other-information/ipo-prospectus-gs-pdf-file.pdf
https://casetext.com/case/spear-leeds
https://www.proquest.com/docview/198337569
https://www.goldmansachs.com/media-relations/press-releases/archived/2000/2000-09-11.html
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/8023/goldman-sachs-in-profitable-deal-to-reach-retail-investors
https://www.goldmansachs.com/investor-relations/financials/archived/10k/docs/2000-10-k.pdf
https://money.cnn.com/2001/11/29/deals/archipelago/
https://www.thestreet.com/opinion/archipelago-redibook-finalize-merger-pact-10013561
https://sec.report/Document/0001047469-04-006296/
https://www.goldmansachs.com/media-relations/press-releases/archived/2013/gs-completes-sale-of-stake-in-redi.html
https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/press-releases/2016/september/thomson-reuters-strengthens-buy-side-trading-capabilities-with-redi-acquisition.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Soros
https://rediformfcu.com/about
https://www.redburn.com
https://www.redwoodtrust.com/what-we-do/
https://www.federalbarcouncil.org/publications/second-circuit-redbook/
https://www.redbookmag.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redbook
http://www.redbookresearch.com/8702.html
http://www.redbookresearch.com
https://www.gao.gov/legal/appropriations-law/red-book
https://4redi.com
https://money.rediff.com/index.html
https://www.rediff.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RediATM
https://www.redibank.com
https://www.redbanktn.gov
https://www.redbanknj.org
https://www.reddit.com
https://www.redmond.gov
https://www.redmondoregon.gov
https://redhotchilipeppers.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Hot_Chili_Peppers
https://www.reddiwip.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddi-Wip
https://www.redfcu.org
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redstone_Federal_Credit_Union
https://www.cmegroup.com
https://cmefcu.org
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ICE?p=ICE
https://www.ice.com/index
https://www.ice.gov
https://www.nyce.net
https://www.nyse.com
https://www.nyseg.com
https://www.euronetworldwide.com
https://www.euronext.com/en
https://www.chinabeigebook.com
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beige-book-default.htm
https://www.facebook.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matchbook_FX
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloomberg_Tradebook
https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/solution/tradebook/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MORN?p=MORN
https://pitchbook.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PitchBook_Data
https://pitchbook.com/media/press-releases/morningstar-to-acquire-pitchbook-data
https://www.morningstar.com/authors/2136/pitchbook
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collusion
Kind Regards
Richard Rosado
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GS?p=GS
https://www.goldmansachs.com/our-firm/history/moments/2001-september-11.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/facebooks-first-movie-premiere-is-a-controversial-911-documentary-2021-8
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_the_September_11_attacks
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/goldman-sachs-profits-ukraine-war-loophole-sanctions-rcna19584
https://casetext.com/case/spear-leeds
https://www.proquest.com/docview/198337569
https://www.goldmansachs.com/media-relations/press-releases/archived/2000/2000-09-11.html
https://money.cnn.com/2001/11/29/deals/archipelago/
http://www.redbookresearch.com/8702.html
https://www.kratosdefense.com/products/uav/air/turbines
https://www.rocket.com/defense/hypersonics/scramjets
https://www.rocket.com/defense/hypersonics
Kind Regards
Richard Rosado
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FB?p=FB
https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/business-journal/2022/04/01/metabank-changes-name-pathward-after-facebook-meta-buyout/7247271001/
https://casetext.com/case/spear-leeds
http://www.redbookresearch.com/8702.html
https://www.facebook.com
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-facebook-owner-behind-60-172953271.html
https://www.metafinancialgroup.com/news/news-details/2022/MetaBank-Announces-Name-Change-to-Pathward/default.aspx
https://news.bitcoin.com/facebook-owner-meta-files-8-trademark-applications-covering-metaverse-crypto-services/
https://www.opencrypto.org
https://www.novi.com
https://news.bitcoin.com/goldman-sachs-features-cryptocurrencies-metaverse-digitization-on-its-homepage/
Best Regards
Richard Rosado
"All the kings 🤴 horses 🐎 and all of his men will not be able to put humpty dumpty together again.. all the financials who were pumped to ridiculous levels by FR money and credit creation starting in 2008 will return to the walking dead zombies they were...
Without the FR, you are toast !
This is the start of a decade or more bear 🐻 market that will cause most investors to lose most of their fabulous, once in a lifetime FR induced gains because they ignored reality and cold hard facts and went against the FR..
If good, it shows that the economy not going to be in recession, good
If bad, which means yields will go down, good, market could up 500 points