Previous close | 82.2360 |
Open | 82.4000 |
Bid | 82.3800 |
Day's range | 82.3100 - 82.4000 |
52-week range | 77.5475 - 83.3860 |
Ask | 82.4300 |
The Indian rupee saw its best single-day gain in two months on Thursday, and also rose to a two-week high during the session, following strong domestic growth data, which prompted traders to square off long dollar positions. Consistent flows into equities coupled with strong economic data is supporting the rupee, said Dilip Parmar, a research analyst at HDFC Securities. India's economic growth accelerated to 6.1% in the March quarter, higher than what economists had expected, confirming that the country remains one of the fastest growing emerging economies.
The Indian rupee on Wednesday was unmoved by the U.S. dollar's Chinese yuan-fuelled strength, helped by the possible dollar inflows and an important support level. The rupee was at 82.64 against the U.S. dollar by 10:52 a.m. IST, compared to 82.71 on Tuesday. This is despite a further decline in the yuan, which pushed other Asian currencies lower and boosted the dollar against its major peers.
The Indian rupee inched lower on Thursday on risk aversion fuelled by the U.S. debt ceiling worries, but fared better than its Asian peers and continued to hold above a key level. The rupee was last at 82.7425 to the U.S. dollar, down less than 0.1% from the previous session. The rupee has managed to hold above the 82.85-82.95 level over the last three sessions, an important resistance level for the USD/INR pair, according to traders.
The Indian rupee fell against the dollar to its lowest level in nearly two months on Thursday, tracking a slump in the Chinese yuan, while hopes of an imminent U.S. debt ceiling deal pushed up treasury yields and the greenback. The rupee closed down 0.26% at 82.60 against the U.S. dollar, compared to its previous close of 82.38. "The dollar index is looking positive amid progress on the debt ceiling talks," said Jigar Trivedi, senior analyst at Reliance Securities.
The Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars via public sector banks after the rupee weakened past 82.50 to the U.S. dollar on Thursday, its lowest in almost two months, three traders told Reuters. The rupee was at 82.4675 to the dollar, having fallen to 82.5575 earlier on worries over cash dollar shortage. "It looks like RBI for decided to step in, which is not a big surprise," a trader at a private sector bank said.
The focus now shifts to U.S. inflation data due Wednesday, with economists expecting a 0.4% month-on-month increase in the core inflation rate. Traders will also watch out for India's inflation data, due later in the week, which will provide cues on the RBI's next rate hike moves.
The falling dollar index, fall in bond yields, and strong Asian currencies gave momentum to the Indian rupee, said Dilip Parmar, research analyst at HDFC Securities. "Still, the (Fed) event risks are there for the rupee," Parmar said, adding that an extended fall in oil prices also aided the Indian currency's move. The focus is now on the Fed's policy decision.
The Indian rupee was little changed against the dollar on Friday amid muted Asian peers, adding to its weekly gains, as corporate inflows propped up the currency over the period. Asian currencies were trading mixed on Friday, while the dollar index jumped 0.5%. One of Federal Reserve's favourite inflation gauge also rose more than economists projected.
The Indian rupee strengthened against the U.S. currency to a seven-week high on Wednesday, tracking Asian peers as the dollar index gave up gains and local equities remained resilient. It's possible that the Reserve Bank of India's absence allowed a further move in the rupee, traders added. "The rupee is expected to gain further as it has broken 81.80," said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, as the currency had found strong resistance near that level recently.
The Indian rupee ended marginally higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday amid tepid risk appetite, but snapped a four-week winning streak, as rising bets of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike boosted the dollar. The dollar index is set for its biggest weekly gain since February on expectations the Fed would hike rates by 25 basis points next month, following mixed inflation and retail sales data. Over the week, several Fed officials have added to those views by pointing out that inflation remains uncomfortably high and rates must keep rising.
The Indian rupee declined past the key psychological mark of 82 per dollar on Tuesday on likely corporate outflows and importer demand for the greenback, traders said. "We think most investors are yet to price in the structural changes in the current account deficit (CAD) over the last few quarters," Anubhuti Sahay, head of South Asia Economic Research (India), Standard Chartered Bank wrote. "A sharp pick-up in services exports, increased smartphone exports and savings in the oil import bill... have likely altered India's CAD permanently."
The Indian rupee rose against the U.S. currency on Monday, helped by likely dollar inflows and healthier risk, traders said. The rupee last traded at 82.37 to the dollar, up from 82.48 in the previous session.
The Indian rupee saw its best trading session in three weeks on Thursday, as Asian currencies firmed on anticipation that the U.S. Federal Reserve was near the end of its rate hiking cycle. The Fed overnight hiked rates by 25 basis points (bps) and mellowed its hawkish stance by hinting it was on the verge of pausing after the recent collapse of two U.S. banks. Although the central bank kept the door open to another hike but saw no rate cuts this year, the probability of a pause at the May meeting was almost even with a 25 bps hike, along with 70 bps worth of rate cuts in 2023.
The Indian rupee ended little changed on Tuesday, as investors were wary ahead of a pivotal U.S. Federal Reserve bank meeting decision, amid major economies grappling with a banking sector crisis. Initial dollar bids from large state-run corporates and lacklustre trading volumes ahead of the Fed meeting led to the rupee staying contained in a range, said two traders. Heading into the risk event, traders said they built "slightly" long USD/INR positions as foreign exchange markets are shut in India on Wednesday.
The Indian rupee strengthened against the U.S. currency on Thursday, with traders citing inflows, but the Reserve Bank of India's likely intervention capped further gains and brought the local unit closer to 82 per dollar. The currency firmed to 81.7750 during the session, after which traders cited dollar buying by state-run banks, possibly on behalf of the country's central bank. The amount of inflows we're seeing shows the rupee could strengthen up to 81.50 or beyond, but we have to see if the central bank will allow it, a trader said.
The Indian rupee declined against the dollar on Wednesday amid worries over the U.S. interest rate outlook, but the losses were contained by exporters and speculators. The local currency had fallen to an intraday low of 82.29.
The Indian rupee ended marginally higher on Monday, giving up most of the day's gains as the Chinese yuan fell and the dollar index rebounded slightly. Towards the end of the session, the local currency reversed its direction as the dollar index recouped losses and offshore Chinese yuan fell 0.6%, while traders cited dollar buying by state-run banks. The yuan came under pressure after the country set a softer-than-expected economic growth target for 2023.
The Indian rupee is expected to open higher versus the U.S. currency on Monday, building on last week's rally, helped by the pullback in the dollar index and U.S. yields and an upbeat risk sentiment. The non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 81.85 to the dollar compared with 81.9650 in the previous session. The dollar index was marginally lower in Asia, extending Friday's decline.
The Indian rupee will remain at its current level three months from now and gain only marginally by the end of February 2024, barely recouping any of its losses from last year, a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists found. It is expected to trade at 82.54 per dollar at the end of May, according to the median forecast in a Feb. 28-March 2 Reuters survey of 34 respondents. In the near-term, much will depend on interest rate differentials, mainly driven by the U.S. dollar.
The Indian rupee reached the highest level against the U.S. dollar in more than two weeks on Wednesday, helped by likely inflows and an uptick in its Asian peers. He pointed to the potential of a large dollar inflow via a public sector bank. The rupee was helped by the Chinese yuan-led rally on Asian currencies following an upbeat manufacturing data.
Foreign investors are wagering that the Indian rupee will do well against other non-U.S. dollar currencies on the non-deliverable forward market, thanks to the Reserve Bank of India's currency intervention, traders said on Friday. Buying the rupee against other non dollar currencies "looks straightforward to us with the narrative on the Fed having changed," an analyst at a Singapore-based asset management company, who did not want to be named on account of the fund's policies, said. They said the rupee did not participate much in the dollar's decline against its major peers and Asian currencies from November to January, likely on account RBI's dollar purchases.
The Indian rupee rose against the dollar on Thursday, helped by a broad recovery in Asian currencies following losses fuelled by worries over rising U.S. yields. The Korean won, the Asian currency worst impacted by the market's ongoing reassessment of the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike path, lead the recovery against the dollar on Thursday. The Fed minutes released overnight noted that almost all participants preferred a 25 basis points (bps) hike at the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 Fed meeting, and a few would have liked a 50 bps hike.
The Indian rupee was barely changed to the U.S. dollar on Tuesday despite its weak Asian peers, on expectations that the local currency remained well supported at near to current levels. The Reserve Bank of India's likely intervention has contributed to the rupee's recent price moves. USD/INR is in a narrow range and with no major economic releases in store for the next few days, this is unlikely to change, said Srinivas Puni, managing director at QuantArt Market Solutions.
The Indian rupee held a narrow range against the U.S. dollar on Friday, largely avoiding the losses of its Asian peers, with the currency continuing to trade above the closely watched 82.90-83.00 level. "We have seen U.S. data push up pricing of terminal Fed Funds and the dollar has reverted to rising in sync with real rates," Societe Generale said in a note.
The Indian rupee firmed slightly against the U.S. currency on Thursday, as the dollar index cooled and Asian shares advanced. Volumes remained muted, but there is some positive risk bias, leading to the rupee gaining ground, said a private bank trader. Outlook on the currency brightened a little after data on Wednesday showed India's trade deficit in January shrank to a one-year low, prompting economists to lower their estimates for the country's current account gap for this fiscal year and the next.