Why Biden is unlikely to be persuaded out of the race: Expert

President Joe Biden's performance in the first presidential debate last week has raised concerns among voters. According to a CBS News and YouGov poll, 72% of voters do not believe that Biden has the cognitive health to serve as president after the debate, versus 65% before the debate.

Stifel chief Washington policy strategist Brian Gardner joins Morning Brief to give insight into the 2024 election and the health of Biden's campaign.

"You see how age progresses and so the question is not just can the president go up against Donald Trump in the upcoming campaign. How effectively can he serve and be president in another term? That's a very serious question right now. I think to an objective observer who watched Thursday night, the answer is probably no. And so it's not for me to say because I'm not part of the Biden family, but they need to have a very serious conversation right now," Gardner tells Yahoo Finance.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Morning Brief.

This post was written by Nicholas Jacobino

Video transcript

Democrats facing what could be a brewing crisis here.

The political party is torn over whether President Biden can take on former President Donald Trump in November.

The first debate of the 2024 election cycle kicked off last week.

Biden's performance left voters increasingly concerned around his age raising questions as to whether or not he should drop out of the presidential race and how Democrats might replace him for more on what this could mean for markets.

We've got Brian Gardner who is the steel chief Washington policy policy strategist, Brian Great to have you here with us.

Ok.

So just the likelihood that we would see any replacement at this juncture, especially considering how much they were continuing to push out some of the campaign and, and rally in Waffle House videos over the weekend.

Yeah, so it's less than 5050 that, that the president uh would drop off the ticket.

Um But it, it clearly is not zero.

I I have it around 40%.

Um uh Clearly going through the weekend, there was pushback from the inner circle from the Biden family.

Um So the, the, the tea leaves right now suggest that he's not going to drop off at the same time.

Anybody who watched Thursday night knows that there are challenges uh for the president going forward, uh and for the party, uh more broadly.

So you can't dismiss the idea that there, there, there will be an effort to persuade him to drop off.

The idea that he would be pushed out is, is very, very low, uh almost zero, but that he could be persuaded uh to, to step aside, you know, it's not zero.

But, you know, it's, it, it doesn't look like we're heading in that direction.

Do you think that he should, Brian?

No, I, I it's tough for me to say, um, you know, without sounding partisan.

But look, you know, I, I think people can look at, at the debate the other night, um, especially people who have situations with friends and family who are older um in their older years and you see how age progresses.

And so the question is not just, can the president go up against Donald Trump in the upcoming campaign?

How effectively can he serve and, uh, and be president in another term?

That's a very serious question right now.

Um II I think to an objective observer who watched Thursday night, the answer is probably no.

And so I, I, you know, it's not for me to say because I'm not part of the, the Biden family, but they, they need to have a very serious conversation Right now, I also want to get your take, Brian on a new CBS news poll showing that an increasing number of voters do not think Biden should be running after that debate, over 70% of them saying to your point that he does not have the cognitive health to be the next president of the United States that is up from 65% previously there.

Given that polling, I am curious from your perspective, if Biden were to drop out of this race, how does that impact, who could potentially get into the White House next year?

Right.

It looks like increasingly voters are not thrilled with the idea of Biden being in the White House.

Does that necessarily mean that they would be thrilled with whoever else goes up against Trump?

That's a great question and, and it probably gets you back to the answer of why he probably stays in because the selection process to, for Democrats to pick a replacement could be disruptive, chaotic, uh fracture the party.

Uh You know, you start with his vice president who has her own um political weaknesses, um does not poll particularly well if you go beyond her to other Democrats uh around the country, um who may not have a strong base or a national base of support.

Um This is a very complicated process once the, if, if President Biden were to step aside.

And so, you know, I, I think there are probably people you know, within upper echelons of the Democratic Party who may not be happy with how things went on Thursday night.

But they also know the alternative isn't all that great.

So, yeah, and there would be a conversation of the vice president of Gavin Newsom of Gretchen Whitmer, a host of other Democrats getting from where we are now to replacing Biden is uh is not an easy task.

How has the questions and commentary from your peers at Stel, from your clients evolved since post debate?

I imagine the types of questions you were getting right after the debate.

How is that conversation changed through to today?

You know, I, I think they reflect what's been going on in, in, in the broader population.

Um Just a lot of surprise to a degree of shock um at, at the performance on Thursday night.

Um I, I think there's a reflection that the odds of a Trump victory uh have gone up.

We were kind of evolving slowly in that direction over several months with both with the investors becoming um more confident or believing that Trump was more likely to win.

Um that jumped up um after, after Thursday night.

Um But I, I think those conversations generally are, are one, you know, what sectors do well, um how does the market react, but also just the, the general sense that reflects everything you've heard about what you guys have been talking about on your shows and what you've read in the media, is there a leading candidate you believe could replace Biden?

I think you have to start with the vice president.

Um You know, she would, she would have a big but not insurmountable advantage.

She would, she, uh she would inherit the Biden campaign, the Biden fundraising apparatus.

Um I, I think the president himself would probably lean into her candidacy a little bit uh for two reasons.

Um, one to validate his selection of her back in 2022.

He's been a vice president.

I think he's very sympathetic to what Kamala Harris goes through every day.

Um It's not easy being vice president, you have the president's staff kind of carping at you all the time.

Um um So, II, I think you start there um, after that.

Um Then, then I think it's an open, very open field.