Why FedEx, UPS stand to benefit from port strike

US dockworkers have gone on strike after the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA), representing 45,000 port workers, failed to secure a new contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) before the September 30 deadline. The strike affects 36 ports along the East and Gulf coasts, ranging from Maine to Texas. Stifel Transportation & Logistics Analyst Bruce Chan joins Morning Brief to discuss the strike's outlook and its potential economic impact.

Chan expects the strike could last up to two weeks, with the outcome largely dependant on "the willingness of the Biden administration to intervene here." He suggests that a short strike resolved within days is "probably not that big of an issue," describing it as "relatively digestible" for the economy. However, a longer strike could lead to higher consumer goods prices, shortages, and disruptions in critical supply chains.

Regarding government intervention, Chan explains, "They signaled that they would be supportive of an organic negotiating process but once you get into that 2-to-3 week time frame where you start to see broader economic implications, I think is where you can see them start to invoke Taft-Hartley and that would really bring about an 80-day cooling off period but I think the key thing to think about there is that even during that period you could see slowdowns in work. You could see the ILA bring down shifts, so we still wouldn't be at full capacity in that situation."

As for who might benefit from the strike, Chan points to FedEx (FDX) and UPS (UPS), noting "their cargo essentially is the only clear beneficiary we can see in this situation. It's essentially the only way to move products in country and bypass the ports."

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This post was written by Angel Smith