LaToya Harding
Wall Street rebounds from tech rout as European stocks climb on ECB rate hold
A dive into what's moving markets and happening across the global economy
LaToya Harding
·Business Reporter, Yahoo Finance UK
Updated
In this article:
Wall Street managed to reverse some of its losses from the previous session's rout as an upbeat forecast from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) fuelled investors.
The firm reported a 36% rise in second-quarter profit amid surging demand for advanced chips, boosting hopes for AI once again, despite escalating commercial tensions between China and the US.
The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) and European stocks were also mostly higher on the day as the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates in the eurozone on hold at 3.75%. The move was widely expected after it cut rates from a record 4% at its meeting in June.
Money markets have priced in around a 75% chance that the ECB will cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in September.
Read more: Trending tickers: TSMC, Netflix, Anglo American and Premier Foods
Meanwhile, UK wage growth slipped below 6% for the first time in almost two years, a sign that the labour market is cooling ahead of the Bank of England's (BoE) decision on whether to cut interest rates next month.
Annual pay growth, excluding bonuses, averaged 5.7 % between March and May, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), down from 6% last month. Including bonuses, annual wages also rose 5.7%. This was down from 5.9% previously and is in line with expectations.
Wage growth is at its lowest since the three months to August 2022, when it stood at 5.4%.
London’s benchmark index was 0.3% higher by the end of the session
Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) slipped 0.2% and the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris headed almost 0.5% into the green
The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) was treading water
After the bell on Wall Street, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 rose as megacaps rebounded
The pound was 0.2% down against the US dollar (GBPUSD=X) at 1.2979, slipping back below the $1.30 level
Tech stocks drubbed as Nasdaq sinks 2.7%, worst day since 2022
Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at Ballinger Group said: "The pause itself surprised no one, of course, with markets having priced it at a near certainty. Data in the intermeeting period had not supported the case for further cuts at this stage, with the renewed momentum in services inflation a good justification for caution.
“This statement represents a dramatic shift from the heavy signalling prior to June and the central theme now is non-commitment. With the more hawkish policymakers that would have liked to have held last month feeling burned by overpromising, the Governing Council is now valuing flexibility and keeping their cards close to their chest.
“I think the picture will be much clearer by September, when a new set of projections should arm policymakers with enough confidence in the outlook to cut again. By their own admission, wage growth is not transmitting as forcefully into the inflation figures and the stall in core inflation can largely be pinned down to one-off factors.”
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Well that's all from us for today. We will be back again tomorrow for the last markets live blog of the week. Thanks for following along in what was a busy day today!
Have a good evening all
- LaToya Harding
Rachel Reeves warns of ‘difficult decisions’ to fix public finances
Rachel Reeves has warned she will have to make “difficult decisions” as she seeks to “fix the foundations” of public finances in the UK.
The new chancellor is set to announce the date of her first budget before the Commons summer recess, as well as an assessment of the “spending inheritance” left behind by the Conservatives.
In the autumn budget, all eyes will be on whether the finance minster is forced to raise taxes or slash spending to avoid a squeeze on public services and to meet her fiscal rule to have debt falling as a share of gross domestic product in five years’ time.
She told Bloomberg TV on Thursday:
“I’m not going to announce any tax breaks or tax changes without saying where the money is going to come from, and we will have a budget later this year.
“But I also just need to be really clear and honest about the scale of the challenge that we’ve inherited with the public finances.
“We’re going to have to make difficult decisions. We need to fix the foundations before we can start rebuilding things in Britain.
“But unlike the previous government, I am going to be honest about the scale of the challenge. I’m going to level with people.”
- LaToya Harding
Best UK mortgage deals of the week
Mortgage rates edged up slightly amid hopes of an interest rate cut in August, with prospective homeowners struggling to find a deal they can afford and more taking loans well into retirement.
The average rate on a two-year fixed deal this week stood at 6.09%, higher than last week’s 5.99%, while rates for a five-year deal came in at 5.49%, also higher than the previous 5.45%, according to figures from Uswitch.
The Bank of England (BoE) has left UK interest rates on hold at a 16-year high of 5.25% for a seventh consecutive time, but markets are hoping for an August cut.
- LaToya Harding
ECB press conference round-up
Here are the key points from the ECB press conference earlier today:
The governing council was unanimous in holding borrowing costs at 3.75%
Christine Lagarde said that the next interest rate decision remains “wide open".
Eurozone faces economic growth risk.
The rate of inflation will fluctuate around current levels for the rest of this year.
A weaker world economy or an escalation in trade tensions between major economies would weigh on euro area growth.
- LaToya Harding
Unemployment benefit claims rise in US
The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the US rose last week, new data has shown.
Jobless claims for the week ending 13 July rose by 20,000 to 243,000 from 223,000 the previous week, the Labour Department reported.
It is the eighth straight week claims came in above 220,000. Before that stretch, claims had been below that level in all but three weeks so far in 2024.
The total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits rose after declining last week for the first time in 10 weeks.
Around 1.87 million Americans were collecting jobless benefits for the week of 6 July, around 20,000 more than the previous week. That’s the most since November of 2021.
Weekly unemployment claims are widely considered as representative of layoffs.
- LaToya Harding
Bitcoin rally sustains as ethereum gains on expected ETF trading
Bitcoin sustained its recent rally following the attempted assassination of former US president Donald Trump at a campaign rally on Saturday.
The largest digital asset by market capitalisation (BTC-USD) surged by more than 10% in a week and is trending up around 1% in the past hour, according to Coingecko data. Bitcoin spiked over $65,000 (£50,000) in early trading on Thursday, a significant rebound from a low of around $55,000 this time last week.
The price of ethereum (ETH-USD) also increased by over 10% in the past week, as market participants anticipate that spot ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could commence trading on stock exchanges next week.
The second largest digital asset by market capitalisation traded up 1% in the past hour, changing hands for $3,437 as of the time of writing, according to Coingecko data.
- LaToya Harding
ECB on course for second rate cut in September
The comments from analysts and economists are coming in thick and fast after the ECB announcement, and ahead of Lagarde's press conference.
Mark Wall, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank Research, said:
“The ECB remains on course for a second rate cut in September. Despite some recent inflation data being less friendly, the ECB has excused some as one-offs and others as absorbed in profit margins.
"The ECB is taking comfort from the trends and looking through the noise, consistent with being ‘data dependent, not data point dependent’.”
- LaToya Harding
Eurozone inflation to stay above 2% ‘well into next year’
The ECB has warned that inflation is expected to remain above its 2% target “well into next year".
It said:
"While some measures of underlying inflation ticked up in May owing to one-off factors, most measures were either stable or edged down in June.
"In line with expectations, the inflationary impact of high wage growth has been buffered by profits.
"Monetary policy is keeping financing conditions restrictive.
"At the same time, domestic price pressures are still high, services inflation is elevated and headline inflation is likely to remain above the target well into next year."
🇪🇺 Two important observations in the first part of the @ecb's statement (a clear signal):
- sticky core inflation in May was driven by "one-off factors" while "most measures were either stable or edged down in June"
- impact of high wage growth "buffered by profits" as expected— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) July 18, 2024
- LaToya Harding
ECB commentary
Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors:
“Since the European Central Bank cut rates last month, events have somewhat overtaken the narrative and as such it is unsurprising to see the central bank take no action at its latest meeting. The outcome of the French election has introduced a new risk to European economic growth, and while market reaction in the continent has been fairly muted to date, it comes as the backdrop and outlook for inflation looks uncertain once again.
“Like the rest of the developed world, inflation has been stubborn and difficult to tame. While overall levels of inflation are down to more palatable levels in Europe, the underlying drivers remain too high and thus the ECB will be gradual in its response. A hold today was always the likely outcome, but attention now turns to September where the next rate cut was being signalled for.
“We have to consider the global context, however, especially with events unfolding in the US. With Joe Biden looking increasingly likely not to be the Democratic candidate in November’s presidential election, the potential market fall out of this and a Federal Reserve facing simultaneous calls to cut and hold rates in September, the ECB might find holding rates again at its next meeting is the easy option. Given this picture, the ECB is facing a tricky balancing act, especially if growth in Europe becomes increasingly challenged.”
- LaToya Harding
ECB leaves interest rates on hold
The European Central Bank (ECB) has left interest rates on hold at 3.75%, as widely expected, after cutting from a record 4% at its meeting in June.
Money markets have priced in around a 75% chance that the ECB will cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in September.
President Christine Lagarde will speak at a press conference shortly, where many expect more clarity about the path monetary policies will take in the foreseeable future.
Patrick Munnelly at TickMill Group said:
"Traders will closely watch for any comments from officials that may provide insight into future rate cuts. These comments are likely to influence the euro, which reached a four-month high on Wednesday as traders fully priced in a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, following remarks from officials."
- LaToya Harding
Billionaire Ken Griffin buys ‘Apex’ stegosaurus fossil for record $44m
Citadel hedge fund founder Ken Griffin has bought the complete fossilised remains of a stegosaurus at auction for a record $44.6m (£34.3m).
The Telegraph has the details...
The fossil, dubbed “Apex,” is considered to be among the most complete ever found, according to auction house Sotheby’s.
The price blew past a pre-sale estimate of $4m to $6m and past a prior auction record for dinosaur fossils.
A Tyrannosaurus rex nicknamed Stan was sold for $31.8m (£24.5m) in 2020.
Although the buyer’s name was not disclosed by Sotheby’s, people close to Mr Griffin confirmed to the Financial Times that he was the successful bidder.
Sotheby’s confirmed that the buyer is American and intends to look into loaning Apex to an institution in the US.
American billionaire Mr Griffin was among the potential suitors to buy The Telegraph along with his investment partner Sir Paul Marshall, the co-founder of hedge fund Marshall Wace and a joint-owner of GB News.
- LaToya Harding
Global deal activity down by 19%
A total of 23,790 deals (comprising mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity, and venture financing deals) were announced globally during the first six months of 2024.
This represents a 19% year-on-year decline in deal volume compared to the announcement of 29,385 deals during H1 2023, according to GlobalData.
The analysis also revealed that all the deal types under coverage suffered setback during the review period.
For instance, the number of M&A deals fell by 13.2% during H1 2024 compared to H1 2023, while the volume of private equity deals and venture financing deals witnessed a year-on-year decline of 20.3% and 27.7%, respectively.
Aurojyoti Bose, lead analyst at GlobalData, said:
“Deal-making sentiments took a hit due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertain market conditions, and macroeconomic challenges.
"Amid these uncertainties, deal makers seem to be taking a cautious approach, with the impact on deal activity being felt across all the regions and most of the key markets globally.”
- LaToya Harding
Rising rents squeezing tenants saving ability
Nearly one in three (32%) private sector tenants who have recently experienced a rent increase are too financially squeezed to be able to put anything away in savings, a survey has found.
The proportion of those who are struggling to save following rental hikes has tripled from 11% a year ago, according to the research published by First Direct.
Of those still able to save, nearly two-thirds (62%) are putting aside £100 or less each month.
The research also found that 62% have dipped into what savings they do have to cover living expenses at least once in the last two years.
Those who can save are also putting aside £50 less each month to offset the cost of their accommodation – as their tenancy costs have increased by more than £100 on average.
- LaToya Harding
TSMC profits soar in global AI boom
Shares in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSM) were higher in pre-market trading after the semiconductor company reported a 36% rise in second-quarter profit amid surging demand for advanced chips.
TSMC posted a net profit of T$247.85bn (£5.84bn/$7.6bn) after the company disclosed its second-quarter sales grew at the fastest pace since 2022. Second-quarter revenue jumped 40% to T673.51bn.
TSMC is the world’s largest and most advanced chipmaker. It manufactures chips for major American firms such as Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA).
Third-quarter revenue is expected to be between $22.4bn and $23.2bn, said CFO, Wendell Huang, in a post-earnings call. Huang said TSMC's annual capital expenditure is now expected to be between $30bn and $32bn, with the lower end of the range up slightly from prior estimates of $28bn.
Shares of the world’s largest maker of advanced chips have more than doubled since the AI boom took off in late 2022.
- LaToya Harding
Market movers this Thursday
As we hit midday, let's take a look at what's happening in equity markets:
Private equity and infrastructure investment group 3i gained after saying it had an "encouraging start" to the new financial year, with net asset value (NAV) rising 4% over the first quarter.
Anglo American was also in the black as it held annual copper and iron ore production guidance after a second-quarter update.
Dunelm advanced as the homewares retailer said full-year pre-tax profit was set to be "slightly ahead" of current market expectations of £200m after a "strong" final quarter.
AJ Bell gained as the investment platform said assets under administration rose 20% on the year in the third quarter to £83.7bn.
Qinetiq trading higher as it said it was on track to meet FY25 expectations after a "good" first-quarter performance.
Diploma fell as the distribution group held guidance as revenue grew 13% in the nine months to 30 June.
Premier Foods slumped even as it reported a jump in first-quarter sales, boosted by strong demand overseas for Mr Kipling cakes.
- LaToya Harding
Frasers Group jumps on annual profit rise
Frasers jumped more than 8% on Thursday to top the FTSE 100 after the British sportswear company reported a 13.1% rise in annual profit despite a dip in revenues.
It also forecast more growth in its new financial year following a series of acquisitions of brands like Jack Wills and Evans Cycles.
The Sports Direct and House of Fraser owner now expects adjusted pre-tax profits to rise to between £575m to £625m.
It follows a rise of 13.1% in its adjusted earnings to £544.8m for the year to the end of April.
Chief executive Michael Murray, the son-in-law of its billionaire founder Mike Ashley, said:
"This has been a break-out year for building Frasers’ future growth. As well as delivering a strong trading performance, particularly from Sports Direct, we made significant progress with our Elevation Strategy.
"We expanded our retail ecosystem, establishing valuable partnerships with new brands. Our brand relationships have never been stronger, giving us invaluable support as we continue the international expansion of our business.
"We invested in group-wide operational efficiencies in warehouse automation and digital infrastructure, which we expect to yield a tangible impact as early as FY25.
"And we generated new growth opportunities with the rollout of Frasers Plus, including recently signing our first third party partner in THG."
- LaToya Harding
More than 2.8 million out of work due to long-term sickness
More than 2.8 million people remained out of work due to long-term sickness, official figures have shown, outlining the challenge facing Labour to get people back into work.
Brett Hill of consultancy Broadstone said:
"As a new Labour government takes power, bringing down economic inactivity due to chronic illness must be one of their highest priorities.
"The record numbers out of the workforce due to ill health are piling pressure on our ailing public health services and limiting the economic growth potential of the country.
"Widespread difficulties in accessing primary care and mental health services are fuelling the crisis, and our struggling public healthcare system is all too often unable to diagnose and treat conditions at an early stage.
"Instead, many health problems go untreated for too long, developing into more serious conditions that ultimately require more complex treatments that take longer, cost more and may well be less successful than early intervention would have been."
- LaToya Harding
Traders await ECB decision on rates
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates on hold this afternoon despite inflation creeping lower in June.
ECB president Christine Lagarde will also speak at the press conference shortly after, where many expect more clarity about the path monetary policies will take in the foreseeable future.
Pierre Veyret, technical analyst at ActivTrades, said:
"After yesterday’s CPI data came out as anticipated, investors will pay attention to ECB president Christine Lagarde’s press conference and hope to gather clues on where rates may go at the next meetings.”
“With monetary policies seen as the top market movers for equity and FX markets, volatility spikes will be expected throughout today’s trading session.”
“Any dovish hints from Lagarde should significantly boost market sentiment for stocks, likely inverting the bearish trend spotted during the last few days.”
“On the other hand, a lingering blurry outlook or, worse, a hawkish semantic could dramatically affect price action and make the current correction deeper for stocks.”
“The STOXX-50 index is already in a threatening technical situation after prices broke out of their short-term bullish trendline, currently trading below the 4,900pts level."
- LaToya Harding
Gold benefits from a weaker dollar
Gold prices rose in early Thursday trading, approaching the all-time high reached during the previous session.
The precious metal is benefiting from a weaker dollar, which is trading at a multi-month low against its peers, as well as from a growing haven trade.
Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, said:
"The greenback is under pressure as economic indicators show a slowdown in US activity and lower inflation, coupled with a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.”
“Amid this backdrop, the dollar has weakened, driving gold prices higher.”
“Additionally, increasing haven demand supports bullion prices as investors become more concerned about escalating commercial tensions between China and the US, potentially triggering a new trade battle between the world's two leading economies.”
- LaToya Harding
Royal Mail boosted by UK election and stamp price hikes
Royal Mail sales were boosted by the UK general election postal votes and stamp price increases, it has been revealed. This is despite delivering fewer letters in recent months.
According to its parent company, International Distribution Services (IDS), the British postal company made £2bn in revenues in the three months to June, up from £1.8bn a year before.
Meanwhile, the number of total parcels delivered jumped by 11% to 315 million year-on-year. However, it saw the volume of addressed letters – which excludes election mail – decline by 4% compared with the year prior.
Across the group, which also includes European parcel firm GLS, revenues increased by 8% to £3.3bn over the latest quarter.
The company added that it was also urging shareholders to accept the £3.6bn offer to be bought by Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky.
Martin Seidenberg, IDS’s chief executive, said:
“Whilst we are making good progress on our transformation in Royal Mail, we can’t do it all on our own and we urgently need to see regulatory reform of the Universal Service.
“Letter volumes have declined from 20 billion at their peak to just 6.7 billion now, making the one-price-goes-anywhere Universal Service unsustainable in its current form.
“Ofcom is due to provide an update on Universal Service reform this summer.
“We urge Ofcom to move quickly to consult on the changes needed to ensure an efficient, financially sustainable Universal Service that protects what customers value the most.”
- LaToya Harding
Sk:n cosmetic surgery firm collapses
SK:N Clinics, one of UK's largest networks of plastic surgery providers and specialist skin care, has collapsed.
Customers have been told via automated message: "Unfortunately as of July 17, the SK:N Group, including SK:N Clinics, the Harley Medical Group, Skinbrands, The Skin Experts and ABC Medical has ceased trading."
The Birmingham-based firm, established in 1990, had more than 70 branches across Britain, including locations in Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow and 17 clinics across London.
It also owned brands such as cosmetic surgery firm Harley Medical Group and skin technology company ABC Medical.
SK:N had more than 450 consultants, doctors, nurses and medical practitioners operating across England and Scotland.
- LaToya Harding
What does wage growth mean for the BoE?
The labour market figures are the last major set of statistics before the BoE’s next interest rate decision in two weeks.
The BoE has pointed to wage growth as a risk to inflation, which would delay the timing of when it could begin cutting interest rates from their 16-year highs of 5.25%.
Jake Finney, economist at PwC, said:
"The labour market is clearly cooling - with unemployment rising and vacancies falling - but pay growth still remains elevated at 5.7%, way in excess of the circa 3% level that is considered to be consistent with the 2% inflation target.
"This still remains one of the largest potential barriers to an August rate cut."
Meanwhile, Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, said the latest figures make it harder for Threadneedle Street to cut rates in August.
“Looking ahead to 1 August, it seems marginally less likely that the Bank of England’s first rate cut will materialise after inflation failed to cool any further, so September may be a more reasonable expectation for an initial easing of monetary policy.
"Nonetheless, inflation is still at target and the labour market is showing some signs of cooling, so we are likely to see more members of the monetary policy committee voting for a cut in the August meeting.”
Following higher-than-expected inflation yesterday, financial markets scaled back expectations of a rate cut at that meeting, putting the probability at 35%. This has now risen to 40% after the labour market data.
Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, added:
“This morning’s UK labour market data further muddies the waters ahead of the August Bank of England decision in two weeks’ time, after yesterday’s hotter-than-expected inflation figures, with the labour market continuing to show some signs of slack, as earnings pressures ease somewhat, despite remaining incompatible with a return to the 2% inflation target.”
- LaToya Harding
UK wage growth slows amid interest rate cut hopes
UK wage growth slipped below 6% for the first time in almost two years, a sign that the labour market is cooling ahead of the Bank of England's (BoE) decision on whether to cut interest rates next month.
Annual pay growth, excluding bonuses, averaged 5.7 % between March and May, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), down from 6% last month.
Including bonuses, annual wages also rose 5.7%. This was down from 5.9% previously and is in line with expectations.
Wage growth is at its lowest since the three months to August 2022, when it stood at 5.4%.
Private-sector wage growth — which is closely watched by the BoE for signs of a tight labour market — slowed to 5.6% from 5.9%.
Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said:
"We continue to see overall some signs of a cooling in the labour market, with the growth in the number of employees on the payroll weakening over the medium term and unemployment gradually increasing."
When the cost of living is taken into account, real pay grew by 3.2%, which was its fastest pace since the three months to August 2021.
Meanwhile, the rate of UK unemployment remains unchanged at 4.4% for the same period.
Pay grew by 5.7% in the year to March to May 2024, whether including or excluding bonuses, remaining relatively strong.
Read Average weekly earnings in Great Britain ➡️ https://t.co/E2o4UY58Ha pic.twitter.com/bKdgVxCNxX— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) July 18, 2024
- LaToya Harding
Asia and US stocks overnight
Asian equities were mixed overnight as investors feared the prospect of escalating trade tensions between the US and China.
The Nikkei (^N225) slipped 2.4% on the day in Japan, with the yen holding firm after scaling a six-week high following suspected interventions by Tokyo.
The Hang Seng (^HSI) eked out a 0.5% gain in Hong Kong and the Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 0.5% up by the end of the session.
It came amid a report that that the United States was considering tighter curbs on exports of advanced semiconductor technology to China, which triggered a sharp sell-off in chip stocks.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost 1.4% to close at 5,588.27, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index (^IXIC) slid 2.8%, closing at 17,996.93.
However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), which has underperformed the other two major US stock indexes this year, ended 0.6% higher — its third record-closing high in a row.
The US dollar remained close to its weakest in four months against a basket of currencies as comments from Federal Reserve officials bolstered the case for an interest rate cut in September.
The yield on benchmark 10-year US Treasury bonds dropped to 4.152% on Wednesday, down from 4.167% late on Tuesday. During trading yesterday, the yield hit 4.146%, its lowest since March 13.
- LaToya Harding
Coming up...
Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be bringing you all the latest on what's moving markets and happening across the global economy.
Here's a quick look at what's on the agenda for today:
12:01am: GFK Consumer Confidence
7am: UK Unemployment Rate
7am: Trading updates: Diploma, SSE, AJ Bell, Dunelm, Darktrace, Premier Foods, Big Yellow,
1.15pm: European Central Bank interest rate decision
1.30pm: US Initial jobless claims for week of 13 July
1.45pm: ECB press conference
3.15pm: ECB president Christine Lagarde speech
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