Goldman Finds Reports of Dollar’s Demise ‘Greatly Exaggerated’
(Bloomberg) -- A recent change to the way the US reports the value of foreign holdings of its debt shows net selling of Treasuries since 2021 has been overestimated, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
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A new valuation-adjusted measure of holdings suggests that most regions haven’t actively been selling Treasuries, Goldman Sachs’s Isabella Rosenberg and Lexi Kanter wrote in a report. Holdings have declined mainly because of the selloff in US rates, and in some temporary cases, probable foreign exchange intervention.
“In other words, the data argue against claims of widespread, active selling of Treasuries with the goal of de-dollarization,” the analysts wrote in the note. “We think reports of the Dollar’s demise have been greatly exaggerated, and the recent pattern in Treasury holdings is consistent with this view.”
Treasury has introduced new data on cross-border transactions in long-term securities known as TIC Form SLT. Among other changes, the new data set shows monthly changes in valuation arising from changes in pricing.
Looking at China’s Treasury holdings, the Goldman analysts found evidence that Belgium and Luxembourg may be large custodians of China’s FX reserves. That would mean those Chinese holdings of Treasuries would be recorded against the location of the custodian.
To account for that “custodial bias” the analysts considered China, Belgium and Luxembourg as one entity in their report, finding that China’s Treasury holdings have likely been “roughly stable.”
Treasury’s monthly report on international capital flows showed China increased its Treasury holdings in April.
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