Italian PM Meloni likely to visit China this month, the reward of cautious diplomacy

Ten months after a planned China visit was scrapped, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is likely to land in Beijing later this month, the result of the two countries "letting diplomacy work" after Rome quit the Belt and Road Initiative, analysts say.

Sources with knowledge of the trip said Meloni was likely to visit China on July 29 and 30, with President Sergio Mattarella possibly following with a stopover in November.

Enterprise Minister Adolfo Urso is now in Beijing to lay the groundwork for these resumed exchanges, intended to showcase Italy's nuanced approach towards economic relations with China.

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Observers said the right-wing leader had exercised careful diplomacy when she withdrew Italy from the initiative, not only avoiding destroying ties but also allowing the two sides to agree they could "go beyond" the trillion-dollar network.

According to Filippo Fasulo, senior research fellow at the Institute for International Political Studies' Asia Centre, Italian leaders were frequent visitors to China before former US president Donald Trump's hardline policies prompted a shift in Western countries' relationships with Beijing.

In 2017, the year before a full-blown trade war erupted between the superpowers, Mattarella had a week-long stay in China, while then-prime minister Paolo Gentiloni attended the landmark Belt and Road Forum.

Soon after, the West then began seeing strong political ties with China as "sensitive", with political events in Beijing - such as the Communist Party congress, where President Xi Jinping secured a third term - further contributing to the idea, said Fasulo, who teaches at the Catholic University of Milan.

"The principal significance of [Meloni's] trip is to 'normalise' and stabilise Italy-China relations after seven years on the roller coaster," Fasulo said. "After [Prime Minister] Giuseppe Conte's visit to the second forum in 2019 - a few weeks after signing the memorandum of understanding (MOU) - no Italian head of the government or the state has visited."

When Meloni and Xi met in November 2022 on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, Rome called the talks "cordial", sharing an all-smiles snapshot of the leaders. The talks led to Xi's invitation for Meloni to visit Beijing.

A trip originally planned for last autumn may have been put on hold because of Rome's then-impending withdrawal from the five-year agreement which expired in December, according to Fasulo.

"The trip was likely delayed because it was necessary first to solve the impasse on the [belt and road] ... Having done that, the conditions were ready to restart bilateral meetings.

"Italy is now ready to have a stable [relationship] with China, being very much aware of the context of great power competition and economic security."

Ties have indeed been polite, especially when viewed alongside the Italian leader's previously unambiguous aversion to Chinese leadership. As sports minister, Meloni called for a boycott of the 2008 Olympics over Beijing's policies in Tibet while advocating for an international mobilisation in favour of separatists.

Rome's membership in the belt and road programme was "a serious mistake", she once said.

Fasulo argued that Rome's exit from the belt and road had not only led to "no retaliation" from Beijing, but even improvements to bilateral ties - the result of a "process of normalisation" pursued by Meloni and deputy prime minister Antonio Tajani, who is also the foreign minister.

"[Rome] has been successful in promoting the relaunch of the strategic partnership signed in 2004 by Berlusconi's government as a major framework for the bilateral relationship. This decision shows that Italy-China relations go beyond the [belt and road], did not start in 2019 and cannot be limited to the fate of the MOU," Fasulo said.

The "global strategic partnership" between Rome and Beijing, launched by then-prime minister Silvio Berlusconi and premier Wen Jiabao, was "more important than the silk road", Tajani said last year.

"July will also be the time of the long-expected third plenum of the [Communist Party] that promises to spin new directions for China's economy ... It was not possible to delay [the trip] any more," Fasulo said, adding that Meloni was also laying the groundwork for Mattarella's expected return to China in autumn.

According to Enrico Fardella, associate professor at the University of Naples l'Orientale, Meloni focused on the Group of Seven meeting hosted by Italy in June so she could "travel to Beijing at the end of July with a stronger stance".

The G7 summit - which focused on "de-risking" from China rather than "decoupling" - aligned with Meloni's approach of maintaining strong economic ties with China even after Italy's withdrawal from the belt and road, according to Fardella.

"The two sides wisely let diplomacy work in favour of a smooth and productive revision of bilateral relations 'outside' the [belt and road] framework," said Fardella, who also directs the ChinaMed Project, a research platform developed by the University of Turin.

Fardella said Meloni's subtle moves that pleased Beijing included welcoming a high-profile delegation led by Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in April, offering muted recognition of the elections in Taipei in January and seemingly preventing parliamentarians from her Brothers of Italy party from attending new leader William Lai Ching-te's inauguration.

Meloni would now focus on bilateral economic cooperation in key sectors, including clothing, chemicals, machinery and pharmaceuticals, with Chinese carmaker Dongfeng Motor's potential investment in Italy set to be a crucial deal on the table, Fardella predicted.

"[Dongfeng] plans to set up a factory capable of producing more than 100,000 hybrid and electric vehicles annually, leveraging Italy's automotive legacy to serve the European market," he said.

With the launch of its Voyah luxury division in Italy, China seeks to "enhance its production capabilities and market reach in the European automotive industry", according to Fardella.

"Chinese companies are trying to move production within the European Union to bypass the emergence of EU tariffs addressing China's car manufacturers - Xi's trip to France and Hungary powerfully signalled this trend."

According to Zhang Chi, an associate lecturer in international relations at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, Meloni is intent on bolstering Rome's economic ambitions while navigating the complexities of the EU's China policies, which include the newly imposed 38 per cent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

"Beijing has already shown signs of retaliatory measures against French imports, and Italy could face similar challenges," she said, adding that, however, groundwork had been laid to set a positive tone for the visit.

"Meloni's trip aims to manage and possibly limit Beijing's retaliation, ensuring that Italy's economic interests are safeguarded ... [and] will likely include discussions on mitigating the impact of these tariffs and exploring ways to move forward," Zhang said.

China in December lifted visa requirements for up to 15 days for passport holders from Italy, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Malaysia - a concession that is valid for a year. Zhang anticipates coming talks to build on the momentum of easing tension between Beijing and European states.

"For China, Meloni's visit presents an opportunity to repair and enhance bilateral ties with Western countries, similar to its recent efforts with Australia which included diplomatic gestures such as offering pandas and announcing a visa-free policy," she said.

Zhang said that while Rome's departure from the Chinese-led silk road struck a blow to the latter's image as being "globally welcomed", Meloni's administration worked to reason with Beijing on why bilateral interactions were being realigned: "to better fit Italy's strategic priorities and mutual benefits". Beijing apparently understood.

"While the state-level withdrawal marks a shift in national policy, many local governments and businesses in Italy continue to engage actively with their Chinese counterparts," Zhang said.

"Ongoing cooperation at the local level helps mitigate the broader impact of the [belt and road] exit."

Italy's moves represent a strategic realignment rather than a retreat from engagements with China, with which Meloni seeks a "productive relationship", according to Zhang.

The foreign ministries of both China and Italy have been contacted for comment.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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