Lyft Forecasts 15% Growth in Bookings Over Next Three Years

(Bloomberg) -- Lyft Inc. is expecting gross bookings to grow about 15% at a compound annual rate over the next three years, the company said Thursday at the start of its first investor day.

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It also sees its adjusted Ebitda margin, as a percentage of gross bookings, to be about 4% in 2027. Analysts were expecting 3.4%, according to Bloomberg-compiled estimates.

In addition, Lyft said it anticipates full-year free cash flow conversion of more than 90% annually each year between 2025 and 2027.

The San Francisco-based company’s updates were part of a broader three-year growth outlook that it provided ahead of the event. Lyft’s inaugural investor day included scheduled presentations from Chief Executive Officer David Risher, Chief Financial Officer Erin Brewer and other executives.

Brewer said the road to profitability will hinge on expanding ride volumes and promoting new products such as its advertising offering. She expects gross bookings from Lyft Media, the advertising platform, to be more than $400 million in 2027 from $50 million in 2024.

Lyft’s long-term outlook is mostly on par with that of its larger rival, Uber Technologies Inc., which said in February it expects gross bookings growth in the “mid-to-high teens” over the next three years from its rideshare and delivery business.

Analysts have been particularly confident in the demand for rideshare services even as overall gains are expected to taper off. The proportion of buy ratings for Lyft’s stock has risen over the past year as the company has improved ridership and retention.

Shares of Lyft jumped as much as 11% on Thursday before closing at $15.66, less than a 1% gain.

(Updates headline and share price.)

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