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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed price. Currency in USD
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57.04-0.07 (-0.12%)
At close: 4:04PM EDT
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  • M
    Mr Clean
    Two methods of finding if an oil company is valued correctly ...free cash flow method is to multiply the free cash flow between 7-16 as oil companies trade between that X free cash flow, so if we say XOM will have $40Billion free cash flow and we picked the lowest multiple that would value XOM at $280Billion, and that’s in the very low end.

    Another way is to multiply the EPS by 20-22 to get share price, so let’s assume we have an EPS this year of $3.60(It will be higher) and we choose to multiply it by 20 (low multiple) it gives you a share price of $72. Now everything i just did isn’t perfect and on the lie side but it shows you how under valued XOM currently is. There are other ways to figure out fair value but i like these methods that i found online.
  • r
    ray
    Bank of America predicts Exxon will hike its dividend. Look for this stock to really pop in the next couple of weeks with earnings and ex-dividend date coming up. Now is when you want to get in at this discounted price.
  • J
    Jonathan
    If I were an investor in love with XOM, confident of its bright future, wouldn't I be happy it goes down, so I can buy lots more shares at discount?
  • D
    Dr Deplorable
    I can see the headlines in September now: "Hurricane Henry destroys all rigs in the gulf and ruins the pipeline, except the ones owned by Exxon. Experts predict it could take a year to repair the others. Oil Rises to 120 per barrel" $XOM stock $50 down $5.
  • C
    Chris
    XOM may benefit greatly from natural gas prices going much higher than just a measly $4. Why measly?

    1. On a BTU energy equivalent basis, natural gas is worth over $11 (not $4) when oil is just at $70 a barrel.
    2. The US essentially just began exporting natural gas as LNG in 2016, and capacity to export more is increasing dramatically. We already export, just via LNG, more than 10 percent of annual national production.
    3. Number 2 should tend to bring number 1 closer into reality in the long term.
    4. The US is increasing exports to Mexico and Canada via more and more pipelines and export roughly the same amount of natural gas via pipelines as we do via LNG .
    5. We are building more and more natural gas electric generating plants each year and this is expected to increase right through 2050 according to the US EIA. This is long term demand growth.
    6. Each electric vehicle will need electricity and natural gas electric generation will be very much needed to provide greater and greater electricity supply.
    7. Each electric vehicle may reduce the need for so much oil and thus may result in lower associated natural gas and higher gas prices. Yet at the same time even more natural gas will be needed to produce electricity for electric cars.
    8. Natural gas is the most economic feedstock to produce hydrogen. Maybe the only viable feedstock.
    9. Bill Gates, through an investment vehicle, recently invested in technology to convert natural gas to hydrogen in a very environmentally favorable way. A possible large clean way to use natural gas.
    10. Numerous big companies are purchasing delivery trucks for use in the USA that run on natural gas. Amazon has recently ordered HUNDREDS of such trucks.
    11. Natural gas is a finite commodity with relatively inelastic demand. Not making more, but using more and more all the time all around the world. There is less natural gas in the earth now than ever before.
    12. Earth's population is growing and per capita energy use is growing.
    13. Wall Street appears to have had a serious aversion to natural gas producers in the recent past. It appears this could be changing. It appears the only viable economic way towards a cleaner future for much of the world. The pendulum seems to be swinging favorably.
    14. When herd mentality changes, prices can move quite impressively.
    15. Anyone think of any other reaons?

    XOM has some substantial natural gas reserves.

    Disclaimer: I am long AR, HGTXU, GURE and SWN all of which have natural gas reserves. I may add to, or decrease holdings at any time. I am subject to errors of judgement and can create my own financial mistakes quite well. This is not investment advice and may be subject to errors. Investors should do their own due diligence and consult their advisors. If there is even a remote possibility that there is a Heaven and Hell, it should be one's primary focus to be sure they know their final forwarding address. Although believed to be accurate, posts may be subject to errors.
  • M
    Matt
    It's obvious that this is undervalued, but why? There's a lot of headline headwinds for this sector. It's the Marxist ESG nonsense out there intimidating investors. Meanwhile, this sector is beginning to find funding from shadow lenders. Not everyone is a woke little d-bag. Artificially suppressed markets always find a way to thrive. It's nature. Oil is a huge necessity and a growing market that is simply not going away. Investors in this sector got stung last year and fear is holding it back. As money continues to flow greed will come back. Remember to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when they are greedy.
    That's my 2 cents.
  • G
    Gerhard
    EIA report is now public, so here is my take:

    Pre-Covid 14.5M bpd consumption now 0.784+3.925+9.295 = 14M so well below 14.5M bpd normal level and accounts for roughly 3.5M shortfall in consumption.
    Refining 16M still 1.3M below pre-Covid and likely that 1M bpd is gone for good.
    Production 11.4M steady, down 1.6M from pre-Covid, but starting to ramp back up.
    Imports up to 7.1M bpd which is why we are seeing builds, that is a massive increase in imports compared to last years levels and compared to last years levels accounts for 6-7M of additional product.
    Inventories up 3.8M but against that is due to a massive increase in imports.

    So the reason we see oil recovering is quite simple, the US is increasing imports by over 1M bpd just to keep up with current demand. This is still not enough to handle coming back to 14.5+M bpd which should be imminent.
  • M
    Marcus
    Flew today from Nashville to San Diego - airports are packed. Drove from San Diego to Anaheim. Freeways are packed. I see it with my own eyes. Oil demand is there and XOM will benefit! I'm not going to worry about short term.
  • M
    Mr Clean
    Southwest Airlines is basically at pre pandemic price and increased debt 300% lol....XOM increased debt but will have all off it paid off in the next 12 months and could do it faster if it wanted
  • J
    Joe C
    Crude is again at $70. And XOM at $58? This stock should be at least $65 on the low end and $75 on the high end. Get long before it's too late. Rising demand & ultra hot inflation put crude at $80 by year end and maybe even $90 ~ $100 in 2022. Energy stocks are on fire sale. The cheapest stocks you can find in today's markets are in the energy sector. Then, get paid 7% dividend to wait. What else are you complaining about?
  • K
    Kawazunohito
    Ah, Yahoo won't let me post the link... but check out zerohedge's JPM-centric article about energy sector... an excerpt: large-cap Energy is now trading at a ~10% FCF yield and a >8% FCF/EV yield at $70 Brent in 2022, with leverage that is <1x. Sorry if I'm double-tapping this...
  • G
    Gerhard
    Well on the positive side we did close the gap up. With the major indices knocking on new all-time highs and clearly an inflationary environment and the low treasury yields it is simply dumbfounding how this stock can trade at such a huge discount to Brent. Clearly it can, so I think a lot has to do with earnings. If we think of the bottom as a 10 P/E based on next years earnings given that the market writes it off as a no growth industry, I guess we can be happy we are where we are at.

    It will take real earnings with these Brent prices, which we won't see till Q4, for people to wake up on this stock, especially if inflation doesn't come down. If we are headed for a repeat of the 70's energy is where you want to be, not tech or growth.
  • A
    Armis
    When oil closed above $70 in June, XOM was at about $62 a share. After OPEC+'s announcement caused some volatility, oil went below and is now over $71 while XOM is $57 a share? Man, oil stocks are so manipulated. Can't wait for this thing to blast back up to about $62-$63 a share for no reason at all lol.
  • M
    MyCrazy
    Seems no one talks much about Nat Gas prices...sort of that background "fossil fuel thing"...4.04 now, was a buck eighty a year ago. Curious how much higher it could go and how much that could give XOM a boost this year...certainly won't hurt.
  • J
    Joseph
    I think August will be a good month, especially mid-late August. We won't see much price improvement until then. Covid numbers will be crashing, Canada will open up, and school will be right around the corner. I live in a left-wing state in the midwest and my employer (largest in the County) said we are all expected to be back in person full time by early September. Earning will probably meet expectations and the balance sheets will improve.

    Also, I think there is a good chance Musk will step down as CEO from Tesla before the end of the year.
  • K
    Kawazunohito
    HAL and SLB canaries... expect revenue and EPS both above expectation, and a 2% earnings day pop? I guess the wildcard here is debt repayment and dividend raise?
  • r
    robp
    Maglan Capital president David Tawil on Thursday told host Maria Bartiromo he expects oil prices to hit $100 per barrel before the end of 2021. Says we could have a serious oil crisis’ within next five years due to curbs on drilling.
  • H
    Hookem
    Piper Sandler Adjusts Exxon Mobil's Price Target to $69 From $63, Maintains Neutral Rating
  • T
    The beast master
    Let the consolidation begin!! Fingers crossed we get a dividend paid at these discount prices!! I love maximum shares of XOM…. The world runs on oil and that ain’t changing anytime soon!
  • Z
    Zionist Slayer
    WTI crude has gone 68 to 72 dollars and Exxon has gone from 57.25 to 56.98 ? Really? There is serious manipulation on options and if the SEC had any teeth, they would go after the big market manipulators, not exactly rocket science to track them down. The issue whether there is the will to go after them.