Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

Alright folks, looking at the chart, the momentum indicators are flashing green... but I'll revisit the idea that we may be quickly (if not at) a near-term top. All breakouts slow down... this one is curious as there is still significant positive accumulation and RSI(6) while not moving up on high volume... which is uncommon to say the least. My speculation is that we may have reached an inflection point awaiting earnings between $75-76. Though, I think most folks would admit, even $75.50 from low $60s was a hell-of-a-run... I'm out of trading ideas on XOM until the Fed decides and earnings comes. Wouldn't be terribly surprised to se a run back up to $76 today... but I don't think this has enough steam to break past $76 with conviction (my opinion). Still very bullish XOM over the next 12 months, but I'm recommending a 'hold' on equities here and probably either reposition or take profit on calls (regarding earnings outcome).

I think we're witnessing an entire generation learning the hard lessons of the market... yes, kids, the market can go down and growth stocks don't always triple/quadruple in a year. I'm reading many articles/message boards with genuine panic... I guess this is why they have money managers and ETFs. I think the whole 'fractional shares' construct screwed things up in the market too... many retail investors with little idea of what, precisely, they were buying. GL, enjoy the rest of the sector/value rotation for however long it lasts. I know/hope most of you had/have an exit plan if you were trading -and/or- you've doubled up with at least a 8% divvy if you are long. At this point in the long game, we're approaching what could be considered fair value ($84 by EOY IMO)... so, be smart about what to do next. Likely best bet, to enjoy that sweet dividend and watch oil bust $100pbbl.

Really bizarre pre-market... a couple potential catalysts, but 1.5% to to downside with the positive tailwinds gives me cause to scratch my head. I'm pulling my limits off, plenty of time, but I'm trying to figure out the motivation... Fed meeting? (should be already considered). Global demand? (Aramaco CEO put that to bed along with analyst calls for $100). Russia? (Likely a non-factor for XOM other than positive impact on oil). Perhaps just a good old fashion dip... but I think the timing would indicate a strong move back to/above $74 prior to earnings (then who knows). Still looking for $75... but maybe that's too ambitious after the good run to date.

Now we have finally reached a reasonable valuation, I do believe $85 is probably the realistic top in the near future. You have to be careful if your day trading XOM. Over the least week or so pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. I have been in and out of my trades on a daily basis with a great return. Now id when it may get a little tricky. I expect to start seeing some profit taking. Keep in mind my main block of XOM is permanently long and I day trade 20,000 shares. I don't always get all of the upside on the day trades, but the long position has been there to get the dividends and all of the upside. Interesting times. XOM is well positioned for the future like many of us on this board has said. Now we will just listen to socialist winers complain about our profits and how unfair it is.